The right ”(and even more so!) We put the rights and freedoms of a person, citizen or measures and forms of freedom of the individual, then, whether we like it or not, when analyzing the structure of the rule of law (and even law!) without this person, citizen, individual. In the hypothesis, disposition and sanction it “is not visible, it is simply hidden somewhere ...”, and even more so of rights and freedoms.
This, however, does not fit well with the ideas of a democratic, humane society and the rule of law, not to mention the freedom of man and individual. Moreover, if we adhere to the concept of market legal thinking, then different participants in social relations (and not only the subjects mentioned by G.O.Petrov) can act as subjects in the structure of the rule of law. It should also be borne in mind that a legal norm is often addressed to a circle of persons defined by specific characteristics (citizens, parents, spouses, tax office, bailiff, etc.).
Unlike an order addressed to precisely designated entities and valid until its execution (decisions on the construction of a building, transfer of precisely defined property, payment of bonuses, on dismissal), the rule of law is not limited to execution. It is directed to the future in the sense that it is designed not only for a given, present case, but also for a seemingly indefinite number of certain general form cases and relations (conclusion of an agreement, transfer of property, marriage, birth of a child) and is implemented every time when the circumstances and situations provided for by it arise.
With regard to procedural norms, as shown by R.V. Sha-gieva, the subject is very important. It is characterized by many specific features and points. In particular, the procedural state can be associated with the natural properties of inanimate objects. Based on the natural properties of things, the legislator constructs the regulation of the behavior of subjects associated with these things. These states include the storage of material sources of evidence and various items, valuables, money. A similar state of affairs arises in connection with the selection of a measure of restraint in the form of a bail: a bail in monetary terms or in the form of valuables is deposited with the court by the accused, suspect or other person and is kept by the court until there is no need for this measure of restraint. It also occurs in the application of such a measure of securing a claim as the seizure of property or money belonging to the defendant.
Such a possible element of the procedural legal norm, as an indication of the subject, often appears in legislation because procedural norms are almost always designed not for any, but only for certain persons (subjects) who may turn out to be
in the field of legal process. This is a court elected in accordance with the procedure established by law, a prosecutor, an investigator, an arbitration tribunal, a labor dispute committee, an organization's administration, etc. However, this also applies to the participants in the process (for example, a person who speaks the languages, knowledge of which is necessary in the case, and appointed by the body of inquiry, the investigator, the prosecutor as an interpreter). Moreover, most of the procedural norms are not addressed to everyone, but only to a very specific participant in the social relations regulated by them (court, plaintiff, defendant, defender, etc.), therefore, an indication of the subject composition in them is often necessary. The content of the subject composition of procedural norms is usually a description of the quality of the subject, acquired by him by virtue of birth or derived from any actions (citizenship, marriage, disability, length of service, kinship, specialty).
Due to the specifics of their activities, certain persons cannot (and sometimes do not want) to exercise their procedural rights and obligations without the intervention of specially authorized representatives of the authorities, without the manifestation of their powers. Thus, a person who has suffered moral, physical or property damage by a crime is involved in the criminal process only after the person making the inquiry, the investigator and the judge make a decision on recognizing him as a victim. All this affects the structure of procedural norms, suggesting the need for a clear indication of their subject composition.
An indication of the addressees of a criminal law norm is sometimes formulated not only in a positive, but also in a negative form. The procedural law contains a large number of articles devoted to conditions that exclude the possibility and necessity of participation of subjects in legal proceedings. Thus, the translator must not only be proficient in the required language, but also not have a direct or indirect interest in the outcome of the case (according to the law). An important role in determining the subject composition is played by the institutions of recusation, replacement of the inappropriate party (in the civil process), etc. Not very often in procedural legislation there is an indication of the immediate purpose of the procedural actions. It is known that the investigative experiment is being conducted "in order to verify and clarify the data relevant to the case."
Subjects in modern conditions it is necessary to include in the structure of any rule of law, or in any case they must always be borne in mind, considered, put into effect, etc., and not denied or pretend that they simply do not exist. Moreover, in every norm, situation, etc. the subject will be his own, with his own set of features, rights, duties, line of behavior, etc. The subject is the most important element of the rule of law.
III. Problems of the theory of law
Wha. But what about other links of the rule of law? With the same hypothesis, disposition and sanction? Without them, we, too, would never have received the full norm (with one link, two or three, it does not matter). A hypothesis, disposition and sanction constitute the core of any rule of law, the basis of the logical structure of any legal norm.
The hypothesis, as before, acts as a part of the norm, indicating life circumstances, the occurrence of which will entail the "inclusion" of the action of one or another legal norm. They can be events (for example, a severe flood), a specific result of an action (handing over a manuscript to a publisher), an age fact (60 years old - men have the opportunity to raise the question of granting a pension), time, place, etc. Hypotheses will be either simple (one condition, one circumstance) or complex (several circumstances necessary for the norm to work).
The disposition acts as the "root" part of the rule of law, containing the very rule of behavior, which must be followed by the subjects of the relationship regulated by this norm. The disposition most often indicates the rights and obligations of the subjects, contains instructions (instructions), how those who will fall under it should act, i.e. a standard of desirable behavior is given.
The sanction determines the type and extent of the consequences resulting from compliance or non-compliance with the disposition. First of all, the type and measure of coercion applied to the subjects - violators of this norm are associated with the sanction of the rule of law. However, there is a certain number of sanctions that provide for a positive result (receiving a prize, gratitude, award) for the commission of any special, significant actions in accordance with the prescription of the legal norm. In this case, the sanction will also act as providing, first of all, the type and measure of coercive measures, negative, undesirable consequences for the subject.
The sanctions provide for the following options:
Deprivation of the subject of certain material values;
Deprivation of the subject (physical or legal)
the benefits lying to him or the failure to provide those benefits that
use other subjects of law (imprisonment, for
prohibition of the release of non-standard products, transfer to special
lending regime, etc.);
Diminishing the honor and dignity of the subject (reprimand
ra, dismissal from service);
Invalidation of the acts of the subject (physical
or legal) aimed at achieving certain
legal results (recognition of the transaction as invalid
the abolition of the law adopted in violation of the competence
first act, etc.).
Sometimes scholars mistakenly equate sanction with legal liability. However, a sanction is an element of a legal norm that is implemented only in case of an offense. It always exists, and responsibility comes only with a real violation of this norm. The sanction, as it were, precedes responsibility, providing in advance, indicating to the law enforcement authorities the type and amount of responsibility that can be applied to a subject (citizen) for an offense committed by him. To the offender, in turn, the sanction indicates the methods to which the relevant state authorities can resort, the procedure, the limit of penalties, coercive and punitive methods of influence. It is generally accepted that sanctions are the legal basis for all types of liability.
The logical structure of the norm is of great importance for improving the practice of applying legal norms. The consistency of law, the inextricable connection and consistency of norms, the elements of which are contained in various regulatory acts (or articles, sections of the law), require, when solving any legal case, to carefully study all those provisions of the legislation that are related to the applicable legal provision.
The advantage of the four-element scheme is precisely the fact that this scheme encourages legal scholars and practitioners not only to a comprehensive analysis of the normative material in its entirety, to determine the conditions for the application of a legal norm, its content, the consequences of its violation, but also to analyze problems subject, person, citizen, etc. in a democratic society, his rights and freedoms, the protection of these rights and freedoms, their promotion. Such an orientation is not provided by a two- or not three-element scheme, fencing off the right, rights and freedoms from a person, citizen, individual with a certain wall.
Human and civil rights and freedoms in Russia are recognized as the highest value (Article 2 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation). It turns out that this highest value of the subject (person, citizen) cannot be ignored in the structure of the rule of law as in the initial element of law, but it must be put in the first place in comparison with all other elements of this rule. At the same time, human and civil rights and freedoms and their measures are important to take into account in a comprehensive study of the internal and external forms of law.
However, internal and external form norms often do not coincide. Very rarely are there such articles of laws that contain all the constituent parts of a rule of law (subject, hypothesis, disposition, sanction). Most often, there are articles that contain a disposition and sanction, and the hypothesis must either be implied or contained in another article. Likewise can
III. Problems of the theory of law
10. System analysis rule of law
It turns out that the disposition is contained in one article, the sanction is in the second, and the subject is in the third. Thus, in accordance with the Criminal Procedure Code, “upon presentation of charges, the investigator is obliged to explain to the accused his rights, prescribed by law, about which a note is made on the decision to prosecute as an accused, which is certified by the signature of the accused ”(Article 149).
In this article there is a subject - "the accused", "his rights", a hypothesis - "upon presentation of charges (circumstances)", there is a disposition - a rule: "must explain the rights and make a note in the decision." However, there is no sanction, which is contained in Art. 213-214 of the Code of Criminal Procedure: when the prosecutor, approving the indictment, discovers that the requirements of this article have not been fulfilled, he will not approve the conclusion, but, returning it to the investigator, will force the latter to eliminate this violation. Returning the case for further investigation is a sanction.
In the process of lawmaking, the practice of setting out the norms of law in articles of normative acts has been developed, consisting in its multivariate, when one article normative act corresponds to the same rule of law (article and norm coincide), i.e. in one article there is a subject, hypothesis, disposition, sanction. This statement of law is rare. One article of a normative act contains only one part of the rule of law, for example, disposition; one article of a normative act contains several norms of law; one article of a normative act contains two parts of a rule of law, for example, a hypothesis and a sanction (or a hypothesis and a disposition).
The most common version of the presentation of the rule of law is when one norm is located in several articles of a normative act and even in several normative acts, for example, a subject - in one, a hypothesis - in a second, and a disposition - in a third normative act. This is due to the requirements (rules) of legislative technology, which imply the brevity and compactness of the publication of a normative act. Otherwise, codes would go from easy-to-use compact editions to bulky, bulky volumes that would be very difficult to use.
A systematic, comprehensive analysis of the norms of law requires the development of a scientifically grounded classification of the norms of law, which play an important role for the law enforcement practice of state bodies and other subjects. State and legal theorists often begin by differentiating norms by industry criterion (based on branches of law). Then they analyze the norms of substantive and procedural law, then they differentiate the norms in the form of prescriptions (into obligatory, authoritative and prohibitive ones) and finally characterize the basic ones (program norms, norms-rules of behavior and general norms).
The classification of norms, if we adhere to the concept of civil law, must begin with programmatic, initial norms of law. It is with them that the entire "legal principle" of any democratic state begins, the entire (and not with branches) process of general knowledge, comprehension and, in the future, the construction of the entire normative-legal system of a democratic state. These are programmatic, basic (initial) norms, rules of behavior and general norms.
Program, initial norms are norms-principles, norms-definitions that serve as the starting point of departure for the law-making bodies of a democratic state. All subjects must be guided by them, accepting all other norms. It is a kind of a pointer, a landmark, and at the same time a requirement for the legislator. Such norms are found mainly in constitutions. Constitutional law contains many program ideas that are important for establishing order in many spheres of social relations, but not through the emergence of specific legal relations, but through the proclamation of the most general rules and principles that are aimed at creating specific norms.
An example is the norm contained in Art. 2 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation: "Human rights and freedoms in Russian Federation are the highest value ", or in Part 1 of Art. 68: "The state language of the Russian Federation throughout its territory is Russian." The same rule will be established by Part 1 of Art. 129 the provision that "the prosecutor's office of the Russian Federation constitutes a single centralized system with subordination of subordinate prosecutors to higher ones and the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation."
Norms - rules of conduct are the bulk of legal norms. These are the rules that make up the majority in all branches of law. Among them, the most common are regulatory and protective norms.
General norms are norms that apply not to one branch or institution of law, but to several branches and institutions. The most obvious is this type of norms in the general parts of a particular branch of law (criminal, administrative, criminal-executive, etc.). General rules cover a complex of relations regulated by them as a general rule for their participants. The programmatic, initial norms can be adjoined by norms in terms of methods of influencing the behavior of subjects.
This classification of legal norms bears traces of the original formation of law. During the formation of the rights of its sources
Similar information.
Lecture 1: Systems Analysis as a Problem Solving Methodology
It is necessary to be able to think abstractly in order to perceive the world around us in a new way.
R. Feynman
One of the areas of restructuring in higher education is overcoming the shortcomings of narrow specialization, strengthening interdisciplinary ties, the development of a dialectical vision of the world, systems thinking. The curriculum of many universities has already introduced general and special courses that implement this trend: for engineering specialties - "design methods", "systems engineering"; for military and economic specialties - "operations research"; in administrative and political management - "political science", "futurology"; in applied scientific research - "simulation modeling", "experimental methodology", etc. Among such disciplines is the course of systems analysis - a typically inter- and supradisciplinary course, generalizing the methodology of researching complex technical, natural and social systems.
1.1 System analysis in the structure of modern systems research
Currently, there are 2 opposite trends in the development of sciences:
- Differentiation, when, with an increase in knowledge and the emergence of new problems, special sciences stand out from the more general sciences.
- 2. Integration, when more general sciences arise as a result of generalization and development of certain sections of related sciences and their methods.
The processes of differentiation and integration are based on 2 fundamental principles of materialist dialectics:
- the principle of the qualitative uniqueness of various forms of motion of matter, def. the need to study certain aspects of the material world;
- the principle of the material unity of the world, def. the need to get a holistic view of any objects in the material world.
As a result of the manifestation of an integrative trend, new area scientific activity: systemic studies, which are aimed at solving complex large-scale problems of great complexity.
Within the framework of systems research, such integration sciences are developing as: cybernetics, operations research, systems engineering, systems analysis, artificial intelligence and others. Those. we are talking about the creation of a 5th generation computer (to remove all intermediaries between the computer and the machine. Unskilled user.), an intelligent interface is used.
Systems analysis develops a systemic methodology for solving complex applied problems, relying on the principles of the systems approach and general systems theory, development and methodologically generalizing the conceptual (ideological) and mathematical apparatus of cybernetics, operations research and systems engineering.
System analysis is a new scientific direction of an integration type that develops a systemic methodology for decision-making and occupies a certain place in the structure of modern systemic research.
Figure 1.1 - System Analysis
- systems research
- systems approach
- specific system concepts
- general systems theory (metatheory in relation to specific systems)
- dialectical materialism (philosophical problems of systems research)
- scientific systems theories and models (doctrine of the earth's biosphere; theory of probability; cybernetics, etc.)
- technical systems theories and developments - operations research; systems engineering, systems analysis, etc.
- particular theories of the system.
1.2 Classification of problems according to the degree of their structuring
According to the classification proposed by Simon and Newell, all the many problems, depending on the depth of their knowledge, are divided into 3 classes:
- well-structured or quantified problems that lend themselves to mathematical formalization and are solved using formal methods;
- unstructured or qualitatively expressed problems that are described only at the substantive level and are solved using informal procedures;
- semi-structured (mixed problems), which contain quantitative and qualitative problems, and the qualitative, little-known and undefined aspects of the problems tend to dominate.
These problems are solved through the complex use of formal methods and informal procedures. The classification is based on the degree of problem structuring, and the structure of the entire problem is determined by 5 logical elements:
- a goal or set of goals;
- alternatives for achieving goals;
- resources spent on the implementation of alternatives;
- model or range of models;
- 5. criterion for choosing the preferred alternative.
The degree of structuring of the problem is determined by how well the indicated elements of the problems are identified and understood.
It is characteristic that the same problem can occupy a different place in the classification table. In the process of ever deeper study, comprehension and analysis, the problem can turn from unstructured to semi-structured, and then from semi-structured to structured. In this case, the choice of a method for solving a problem is determined by its place in the table of classifications.
Figure 1.2 - Classification table
- identifying the problem;
- formulation of the problem;
- solution;
- unstructured problem (can be solved using heuristic methods);
- methods of expert assessments;
- poorly structured problem;
- methods of system analysis;
- well structured problem;
- operations research methods;
- decision-making;
- implementation of the solution;
- evaluation of the solution.
1.3 Principles for solving well-structured problems
To solve problems of this class, the mathematical methods of I.O. In operational research, the main stages can be distinguished:
- Determination of competing strategies for achieving the goal.
- Construction of a mathematical model of the operation.
- Evaluating the effectiveness of competing strategies.
- Choosing the optimal strategy for achieving goals.
The mathematical model of the operation is a functional:
E = f (x∈x →, (α), (β)) ⇒ extz
- E - the criterion of the effectiveness of operations;
- x is the operating party's strategy;
- α - a set of conditions for conducting operations;
- β is a set of environmental conditions.
The model makes it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of competing strategies and select the optimal strategy from among them.
- persistence of the problem
- restrictions
- performance criterion
- mathematical model of the operation
- the parameters of the model, but some of the parameters, as a rule, are not known, therefore (6)
- forecasting information (i.e., you need to predict a number of parameters)
- competing strategies
- analysis and strategies
- optimal strategy
- approved strategy (simpler, but which satisfies a number of criteria)
- solution implementation
- model correction
The criterion for the effectiveness of the operation must meet a number of requirements:
- Representativeness, i.e. the criterion should reflect the primary, not the secondary, purpose of the operation.
- Criticality - i.e. the criterion must change when changing the parameters of operations.
- Uniqueness, since only in this case it is possible to find a rigorous mathematical solution to the optimization problem.
- Accounting for stochasticity, which is usually associated with the random nature of some parameters of operations.
- Consideration of uncertainties associated with the lack of any information about some parameters of operations.
- Taking into account the counteraction that is often caused by a conscious adversary who controls the full parameters of operations.
- Simple, because a simple criterion allows you to simplify the mathematical calculations when searching for opt. solutions.
Here is a diagram that illustrates the basic requirements for the criterion of the effectiveness of operations research.
Rice. 1.4 - Scheme that illustrates the requirements for the performance criterion of operations research
- statement of the problem (2 and 4 (restrictions) follow);
- efficiency criterion;
- top-level tasks
- restrictions (we organize nesting of models);
- communication with top-level models;
- representativeness;
- criticality;
- uniqueness;
- accounting for stochasticity;
- accounting for uncertainty;
- accounting for opposition (game theory);
- simplicity;
- mandatory restrictions;
- additional restrictions;
- artificial restrictions;
- selection of the main criterion;
- translation of restrictions;
- construction of a generalized criterion;
- evaluation of the mathematical otid-i;
- construction of confidence intervals:
- analysis of possible options (there is a system; we do not know exactly what the intensity of the input flow is; we can only assume a certain intensity with a certain probability; then we weigh the output options).
Uniqueness - so that you can solve the problem by strictly mathematical methods.
Items 16, 17 and 18 are ways to get rid of multi-criteria.
Accounting for stochasticity - most of the parameters have a stochastic value. In some cases, stoh. we ask in form f-i distribution, therefore, the criterion itself must be averaged, i.e. apply mathematical expectations, therefore, clauses 19, 20, 21.
1.4 Principles for solving unstructured problems
To solve problems of this class, it is advisable to use the methods of expert assessments.
Expert assessment methods are used in cases where the mathematical formalization of problems is either impossible due to their novelty and complexity, or requires a lot of time and money. Common to all methods of expert assessments is the appeal to the experience, guidance and intuition of specialists performing the functions of experts. Giving answers to the question posed, experts are like sensors of information that is analyzed and generalized. It can be argued, therefore, that if there is a true answer in the range of answers, then the aggregate of disagreed opinions can be effectively synthesized into some generalized opinion close to reality. Any method of expert assessments is a set of procedures aimed at obtaining information of heuristic origin and processing this information using mathematical and statistical methods.
The process of preparing and conducting an examination includes the following stages:
- definition of chains of expertise;
- formation of a group of analysts;
- formation of a group of experts;
- development of a scenario and examination procedures;
- collection and analysis of expert information;
- processing of expert information;
- analysis of the results of the examination and decision-making.
When forming a group of experts, it is necessary to take into account their individual x-ki, which affect the results of the examination:
- competence (level of professional training)
- creativity (human creativity)
- constructive thinking (do not "fly" in the clouds)
- conformism (exposure to the influence of authority)
- attitude to examination
- collectivism and self-criticism
Expert assessment methods are used quite successfully in the following situations:
- choice of goals and topics of scientific research
- choice of options for complex technical and socio-economic projects and programs
- construction and analysis of models of complex objects
- construction of criteria in vector optimization problems
- classification of homogeneous objects according to the severity of a property
- assessment of the quality of products and new technology
- decision making in production management tasks
- long-term and current planning of production, research and development and development
- scientific, technical and economic forecasting, etc. etc.
1.5 Principles for solving semi-structured problems
To solve problems of this class, it is advisable to use the methods of system analysis. The problems solved using systems analysis have a number of characteristic features:
- the decision taken refers to the future (the plant, which does not exist yet)
- there is a wide range of alternatives
- decisions depend on the current incompleteness of technological advances
- decisions made require large investments of resources and contain elements of risk
- requirements related to cost and time to solve the problem are not fully defined
- an internal problem is complex due to the fact that for its solution it is necessary to combine various resources.
The basic concepts of systems analysis are as follows:
- the process of solving the problem should begin with identifying and justifying the final goal that they want to achieve in a particular area and already on this basis intermediate goals and objectives are determined
- any problem must be approached as a complex system, while identifying all possible details and interrelationships, as well as the consequences of certain decisions
- in the process of solving the problem, the formation of many alternatives for achieving the goal is carried out; evaluating these alternatives using appropriate criteria and choosing the preferred alternative
- the organizational structure of the problem solving mechanism should be subordinate to a goal or set of goals, and not vice versa.
System analysis is a multi-step iterative process, and the starting point of this process is the formulation of the problem in some initial form. When formulating a problem, 2 conflicting requirements must be taken into account:
- the problem should be formulated broadly enough not to miss anything significant;
- the problem must be formed in such a way that it is visible and can be structured. In the course of system analysis, the degree of problem structuring increases, i.e. the problem is being formulated more and more clearly and comprehensively.
Rice. 1.5 - One step system analysis
- formulation of the problem
- purpose justification
- formation of alternatives
- resource exploration
- building a model
- assessment of alternatives
- decision making (choice of one decision)
- sensitivity analysis
- verification of initial data
- clarification of the ultimate goal
- search for new alternatives
- resource and criteria analysis
1.6 Main steps and methods of CA
CA provides: the development of a systematic method for solving the problem, i.e. a logically and procedurally organized sequence of operations aimed at choosing the preferred solution alternative. The CA is implemented practically in several stages, however, there is still no unity with regard to their number and content, since This is a wide variety of applied problems.
Here is a table that illustrates the basic patterns of SA from different scientific schools.
| The main stages of system analysis | ||
|---|---|---|
| According to F. Hansman Germany, 1978 |
According to D. Jeffers USA, 1981 |
According to V.V.Druzhinin USSR, 1988 |
|
|
|
The scientific tools of the CA include the following methods:
- scripting method (trying to describe the system)
- goal tree method (there is an ultimate goal, it is broken down into subgoals, subgoals for problems, etc., i.e. decomposition to tasks that we can solve)
- morphological analysis method (for inventions)
- expert assessment methods
- probabilistic and statistical methods (theory of ML, games, etc.)
- cybernetic methods (black box object)
- IO methods (scalar opt)
- vector optimization methods
- simulation techniques (e.g. GPSS)
- network methods
- matrix methods
- methods of economic analysis, etc.
In the process of CA, at its different levels, various methods are used, in which heuristics are combined with formalism. CA serves as a methodological framework that brings together all the necessary methods, research techniques, activities and resources to solve problems.
1.7 The system of preferences of decision makers and a systematic approach to the decision-making process.
The decision-making process consists in choosing a rational solution from a set of alternative solutions, taking into account the decision-maker's preference system. Like any process in which a person participates, it has 2 sides: objective and subjective.
The objective side is what is real outside the consciousness of a person, and the subjective side is what is reflected in the consciousness of a person, i.e. objective in the mind of a person. The objective is reflected in the consciousness of a person not always adequately enough, but it does not follow from this that there can be no correct decisions. In practice, the right decision is considered to be that in the main outlines correctly reflects the situation and corresponds to the task at hand.
The decision maker's preference system is determined by many factors:
- understanding the problem and development prospects;
- current information about the state of some operation and the external conditions of its course;
- directives from higher authorities and various kinds of restrictions;
- legal, economic, social, psychological factors, traditions, etc.
Rice. 1.6 - System of preferences of decision makers
- directives from higher authorities on the goals and objectives of operations (technical processes, forecasting)
- restrictions on resources, degree of independence, etc.
- information processing
- operation
- external conditions (external environment), a) determination; b) stochastic (the computer fails at a random interval t); c) organized opposition
- information on external conditions
- rational decision
- control synthesis (system dependent)
Being in these grips, the decision maker must normalize the set of potential solutions from them. Select 4-5 best of them and 1 solution from them.
A systematic approach to the decision-making process consists in the implementation of 3 interrelated procedures:
- Many potential solutions stand out.
- Many competing solutions are selected from among them.
- A rational solution is selected taking into account the decision maker's preferences.
Rice. 1.7 - A systematic approach to the decision-making process
- possible solutions
- competing solutions
- rational decision
- purpose and objectives of the operation
- operation status information
- information on external conditions
- stochastic
- organized counteraction
- resource constraint
- limitation on the degree of independence
- additional restrictions and conditions
- legal factors
- economic forces
- sociological factors
- psychological factors
- traditions and more
- efficiency criterion
Modern systems analysis is an applied science aimed at elucidating the reasons for the real difficulties faced by the "owner of the problem" and at developing options for their elimination. In its most advanced form, systems analysis also includes direct, practical, improving intervention in a problem situation.
Consistency should not seem like some kind of innovation, the latest achievement of science. Systematicity is a universal property of matter, a form of its existence, and therefore an inalienable property of human practice, including thinking. Any activity can be less or more systemic. The appearance of a problem is a sign of insufficient consistency; the solution to the problem is the result of increasing consistency. Theoretical thought at different levels of abstraction reflected the consistency of the world in general and the consistency of human knowledge and practice. At the philosophical level, this is dialectical materialism, at the general scientific level - systemology and general theory of systems, the theory of organization; on natural sciences - cybernetics. With the development of computing technology, informatics and artificial intelligence emerged.
In the early 1980s, it became obvious that all these theoretical and applied disciplines form, as it were, a single stream, a "systemic movement." Consistency becomes not only a theoretical category, but also a conscious aspect of practical activity. Since large and complex systems of necessity became the subject of study, management and design, it became necessary to generalize the methods of studying systems and methods of influencing them. A kind of applied science should have arisen, which is a "bridge" between abstract theories of systemicity and living systemic practice. It arose - first, as we noted, in various fields and under different names, and in last years formed into a science that was called "systems analysis".
The features of modern systems analysis stem from the very nature of complex systems. With the goal of eliminating the problem or, at least, clarifying its causes, system analysis involves a wide range of means for this, uses the capabilities of various sciences and practical fields of activity. Essentially an applied dialectic, systems analysis attaches great importance to the methodological aspects of any systems research. On the other hand, the applied orientation of systems analysis leads to the use of all modern means of scientific research - mathematics, computer technology, modeling, field observations and experiments.
When examining a real system one usually encounters a wide variety of problems; it is impossible for one person to be a professional in each of them. The way out is seen in the fact that those who undertake to carry out systems analysis have the education and experience necessary to identify and classify specific problems, to determine which specialists should be contacted to continue the analysis. This imposes special requirements on systems specialists: they must have wide erudition, relaxed thinking, the ability to attract people to work, and organize collective activities.
After listening to this course of lectures, or after reading several books on this topic, you cannot become a specialist in systems analysis. As W. Shakespeare put it: "If doing it would be as easy as knowing what to do, chapels would be cathedrals, huts would be palaces." Professionalism is acquired through practice.
Consider an interesting forecast of the fastest expanding employment in the United States: Dynamics in% 1990-2000.
- nursing staff - 70%
- radiation technology specialists - 66%
- travel agents - 54%
- computer systems analysts - 53%
- programmers - 48%
- electronic engineers - 40%
Development of systemic representations
What does the word “system” itself mean, or “big system”, what does it mean to “act systemically”? We will receive answers to these questions gradually, increasing the level of consistency of our knowledge, which is the purpose of this course of lectures. In the meantime, we have enough of those associations that arise when the word "system" is used in ordinary speech in combination with the words "socio-political", "Solar", "nervous", "heating" or "equations", "indicators", "views and beliefs ”. Subsequently, we will consider in detail and comprehensively the signs of consistency, and now we will note only the most obvious and obligatory of them:
- structuredness of the system;
- the interconnectedness of its constituent parts;
- subordination of the organization of the entire system to a specific goal.
Consistency of practical activity
In relation, for example, to human activity, these signs are obvious, since each of us will easily detect them in our own practical activities. Each of our conscious actions pursues a well-defined goal; in any action it is easy to see its constituent parts, smaller actions. In this case, the component parts are performed not in an arbitrary order, but in a certain sequence. This is a definite interconnectedness of the constituent parts, subordinate to the goal, which is a sign of consistency.
Consistency and algorithmicity
Another name for such a construction of activities is algorithmicity. The concept of an algorithm originated at the beginning in mathematics and meant the assignment of a precisely defined sequence of unambiguously understood operations on numbers or other mathematical objects. In recent years, the algorithmic nature of any activity has begun to be realized. Already they are talking not only about algorithms for making managerial decisions, about learning algorithms, algorithms for playing chess, but also about algorithms for invention, algorithms for composition of music. We emphasize that this is a departure from the mathematical understanding of the algorithm: while maintaining a logical sequence of actions, it is assumed that the algorithm may contain non-formalized actions. Thus, the explicit algorithmicization of any practical activity is an important property of its development.
The consistency of cognitive activity
One of the features of cognition is the presence of analytical and synthetic ways of thinking. The essence of the analysis consists in dividing the whole into parts, in representing the complex as a set of simpler components. But in order to cognize the whole, the complex, the reverse process is also necessary - synthesis. This applies not only to individual thinking, but also to universal human knowledge. Let's just say that the dismemberment of thinking into analysis and synthesis and the interconnectedness of these parts are the most important sign of the systematic nature of cognition.
Systemicity as a universal property of matter
Here it is important for us to highlight the idea that consistency is not only a property of human practice, including both external active activity and thinking, but a property of all matter. The consistency of our thinking follows from the consistency of the world. Modern scientific data and modern systemic concepts allow us to talk about the world as an endless hierarchical system of systems that are in development and on different stages development, at different levels of the system hierarchy.
Summarize
In conclusion, as information for thought, we give a diagram showing the connection of the issues discussed above.
Figure 1.8 - Relationship between the issues discussed above
- Translation
Systems analysis provides a rigorous approach to decision making techniques. It is used to investigate alternatives and includes modeling and simulation, cost analysis, technical risk analysis, and performance analysis.
Unlike SWEBoK, SEBoK is much less widespread in Russia. At least when preparing a training course for a master's degree, I could not find at least some translations of his articles. Nevertheless, the book structures very useful and so far scattered knowledge in the development of large systems, including systems analysis.
Since my course dealt specifically with systems analysis, under the cut there will be a translation of this SEBoK chapter ... But these are just a few chapters of one of the 7 sections of the book.
P.S. I would be grateful for your comments and your opinion about this article (quality, necessity) and about your interest in systems analysis and systems engineering.
Basic principles of systems analysis
One of the main tasks of systems engineering is to evaluate the results obtained as a result of its processes. Comparison, assessment is the central object of systems analysis that provides necessary techniques and funds for:- Definition of comparison criteria based on system requirements;
- Estimates of the expected properties of each alternative solution in comparison with the selected criteria;
- A summary assessment of each option and its explanation;
- Choosing the most suitable solution.
The process of analyzing and choosing between alternative solutions to the identified problem / possibility is described in Section 2 of SEBoK (chapter Systems approach to systems design). Let's define the basic principles of system analysis:
- System analysis is an iterative process that consists of evaluating alternative solutions obtained during the synthesis of a system.
- Systems analysis is based on evaluation criteria based on a description of a problem or system capability;
- The criteria are based on an ideal system description;
- The criteria should take into account the required behavior and properties of the system in the final solution, in all possible broader contexts;
- The criteria should include non-functional issues such as system security and safety, etc. (described in more detail in the chapter "Systems Engineering and Special Design").
- An "ideal" system can support a "loose" description from which "fuzzy" criteria can be determined. For example, stakeholders are in favor or against certain types of decisions, relevant social, political or cultural conventions must also be considered, etc.
- Comparison criteria should include, at a minimum, cost and time constraints that are acceptable to stakeholders.
- Systems analysis provides a separate trade-off exploration mechanism for analyzing alternative solutions
- Trade-off exploration is an interdisciplinary approach to find the most balanced solution among the many supposed viable options.
- The study considers the entire set of assessment criteria, taking into account their limitations and interrelationships. A "system of evaluation criteria" is being created.
- When comparing alternatives, one will have to deal with both objective and subjective criteria. Care must be taken to determine the impact of each criterion on the overall score (sensitivity of the overall score).
Exploring tradeoffs
Note: In our literature, the term "Analysis of alternatives" or "Assessment of alternatives" is more common.In the context of a system description, trade-off research consists of comparing the characteristics of each system element and each system architecture option to determine the overall solution that best suits the criteria being assessed. The analysis of various characteristics is carried out in the processes of cost analysis, risk analysis, and performance analysis. From a systems engineering point of view, these three processes will be discussed in more detail.
All methods of analysis should use general rules:
- Evaluation criteria are used to classify different solutions. They can be relative or absolute. For example, the maximum price per unit of production is in rubles, cost reduction is%, efficiency increase is%, risk reduction is also in%.
- The acceptable limits of the evaluation criteria are determined, which are applied during the analysis (for example, the type of costs that need to be taken into account; acceptable technical risks, etc.);
- For comparison quantitative characteristics rating scales are used. Their description should include the maximum and minimum limits, as well as the order in which the characteristic changes within these limits (linear, logarithmic, etc.).
- A score is assigned to each decision option across all criteria. The purpose of trade-off research is to provide quantitative comparisons across three dimensions (and their decomposition into separate criteria) for each solution: cost, risk, and efficiency. This operation is usually complex and requires the creation of models.
- Optimizing characteristics or properties improves the evaluation of the most interesting solutions.
- Subjective evaluation criteria are the analyst's personal opinion. For example, if a component is supposed to be beautiful, what is the criterion "beautiful"?
- Undefined data. For example, inflation should be factored into the calculation of service costs for full life cycle systems. How can a systems engineer predict inflation over the next five years?
- Sensitivity analysis. The overall rating given to each alternative is not absolute; therefore, it is recommended that a sensitivity analysis be performed that takes into account small changes in the "weights" of each assessment criterion. An estimate is considered reliable if a change in the “weights” does not materially change the estimate.
Carefully conducted trade-off research determines the acceptable values of the results.
Efficiency analysis
Performance analysis is based on the context of the system use or problem.The effectiveness of the solution is determined based on the implementation of the main and additional functions of the system, which are identified based on the satisfaction of the requirements of stakeholders. For products, this will be a set of common non-functional qualities, for example: safety, security, reliability, maintainability, usability, etc. These criteria are often accurately described in related technical disciplines and fields. For services or organizations, the criteria may be more related to defining the needs of the users or the goals of the organization. Typical characteristics of such systems include resilience, flexibility, development capability, etc.
In addition to assessing the absolute effectiveness of a solution, cost and implementation time constraints must also be considered. In general, the role of systems analysis is reduced to identifying solutions that can provide efficiency to some extent, taking into account the cost and time allocated for each given iteration.
If none of the solutions can provide a level of performance that justifies the anticipated investment, then it is necessary to return to the original state of the problem. If even one of the options shows sufficient effectiveness, then the choice can be made.
Solution effectiveness includes (but is not limited to) several essential characteristics: performance, usability, reliability, production, service and support, etc. Analysis in each of these directions highlights the proposed solutions from the point of view of various aspects.
It is important to establish a classification of the importance of the aspects for the analysis of effectiveness, the so-called. key performance indicators. The main difficulty in analyzing effectiveness is to correctly sort and select a set of aspects in terms of which effectiveness is assessed. For example, if a product is manufactured for one-time use, maintainability would not be an appropriate criterion.
Cost analysis
Cost analysis considers the costs of the entire life cycle. The basic set of typical costs may vary for a specific project and system. The cost structure can include both labor costs (labor costs) and non-labor costs.| Type of | Description and example |
|---|---|
| Development of | Design, development of tools (hardware and software), project management, testing, prototyping and prototyping, training, etc. |
| Manufacturing a product or providing a service | Raw materials and supplies, spare parts and stock, resources necessary for work (water, electricity, etc.), risks, evacuation, processing and storage of waste or scrap, administrative costs (taxes, administration, document flow, quality control, cleaning , control, etc.), packaging and storage, necessary documentation. |
| Sales and after-sales service | Expenses for the sales network (branches, stores, service centers, distributors, obtaining information, etc.), handling complaints and providing guarantees, etc. |
| Customer use | Taxes, installation (at the customer's site), resources required for operation (water, fuel, etc.), financial risks, etc. |
| Supplies | Transportation and delivery |
| Service | Service centers and visits, prevention, control, spare parts, warranty costs, etc. |
| Deleting | Folding, dismantling, transport, waste disposal, etc. |
Costing methods are described in the Planning section (Section 3).
Analysis of technical risks
Risk is the potential inability to achieve goals within a specified cost, schedule, and technical constraints. Consists of two parts:- The likelihood of realization (the probability that the risk will be justified and the goals will not be achieved);
- The degree of influence or consequences of the implementation.
Risk analysis in any area is based on three factors:
- Analysis of the presence of potential threats or unwanted events and the likelihood of their occurrence.
- Analysis of the consequences of the identified threats and their classification according to the severity scale.
- Reducing the likelihood of threats or the level of their impact to acceptable values.
- Incorrect assessment of technological capabilities;
- Reassessment of the technical readiness of a system element;
- Accidents due to wear or obsolescence of equipment, components or software,
- Supplier dependency (incompatible parts, delivery delays, etc.);
- Human factor (inadequate training, incorrect settings, insufficient error handling, inappropriate procedures, malicious intent), etc.
Process approach
Purpose and principles of the approach
The systems analysis process is used to:- Ensuring a rigorous approach to decision making, resolving conflict requirements, and evaluating alternative physical solutions (individual elements and the entire architecture);
- Determination of the level of satisfaction of requirements;
- Risk management support;
- Confirmation that decisions are made only after calculating costs, timing, performance and risk impact on system design or redesign.
System analysis supports other system description processes:
- Stakeholder Requirements Description and System Requirements Description processes use systems analysis to resolve conflicts between requirements; in particular related to costs, technical risks and efficiency. System requirements that are at high risk or require significant architectural changes are discussed further.
- Logical and physical architecture design processes use systems analysis to evaluate the characteristics or properties of architecture options, and provide a rationale for selecting the most efficient option in terms of cost, technical risk, and efficiency.
Tasks within the process
The main activities and tasks in this process include:- Planning the study of alternatives:
- Determination of the number of alternatives for analysis, methods and procedures used, expected results (examples of objects for selection: behavioral scenario, physical architecture, system element, etc.), and rationale.
- Creation of an analysis schedule according to the availability of models, technical data (system requirements, description of system properties), personnel qualifications and selected procedures.
- Determination of model selection criteria:
- Selection of evaluation criteria from non-functional requirements (performance, operating conditions, limitations, etc.) and / or descriptions of properties.
- Sorting and ordering criteria;
- Determination of a comparison scale for each assessment criterion, and determination of the weight of each criterion in accordance with its level of importance relative to other criteria.
- Identify decision options, associated models and data.
- Evaluating options using previously defined methods and procedures:
- Perform cost analysis, technical risk analysis, and performance analysis by placing all alternatives on a scale for each assessment criterion.
- Rate all alternatives on a general rating scale.
- Providing results to the initiating process: evaluation criteria, selection of ratings, comparison scales, evaluation results for all options, and possible recommendations with rationale.
Artifacts and process terminology
The process creates artifacts such as:- Selection criteria model (list, rating scales, weights);
- Reports on the analysis of costs, risks, efficiency;
- Report justifying the choice.
The process uses the terms listed in the table below.
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Evaluation criterion | In the context of systems analysis, a criterion is a characteristic used to compare elements of a system, physical architecture, functional scenarios, and other elements that can be compared. Includes: identifier, title, description, weight. |
| Evaluation choice | Management of system elements based on a score that explains the choice of system elements, physical architecture, or use case. |
| Evaluation score (score) | The assessment score is obtained by the elements of the system, physical architecture, functional scenarios using a set of assessment criteria. Includes: identifier, title, description, value. |
| Expenses | The value in the selected currency associated with the value of the system element, etc. Includes: identifier, title, description, amount, type of costs (development, production, use, maintenance, disposal), method of assessment, period of validity. |
| Risk | An event that can occur and affect the goals of the system or its individual characteristics (technical risks). Includes: identifier, title, description, status. |
Checking the correctness of the system analysis
To obtain verified results, you must ensure that the following points are met:- Correspondence of models and data in the context of using the system;
- Compliance with the evaluation criteria in relation to the context of use of the system;
- Reproducibility of simulation and calculation results;
- Sufficient level of accuracy of comparison scales;
- Trust in estimates;
- A sufficient level of sensitivity of the scores obtained in relation to the weights of the assessment criteria.
Principles of using models
- Use of generic models. Various types of models can be used in the context of systems analysis.
- Physical models are scale models that allow you to experiment with physical phenomena. Are specific to each discipline; for example: dummies, test benches, prototypes, vibration tables, decompression chambers, air tunnels, etc.
- View models are mainly used to model the behavior of a system. For example, state diagrams, etc.
- Analytical models are used to establish the value of estimates. Use equations or diagrams to describe the actual operation of the system. They can be very simple (adding elements) or incredibly complex (probability distribution with several variables).
- Use of the required models. Appropriate models should be used at each stage of the project:
- At the beginning of the project, simple tools are used to get rough approximations without much cost and effort. Such an approximation is often enough to immediately identify unrealistic solutions.
- As the project progresses, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of the data to compare still competing options. The work will be more difficult with a high level of innovation in the project.
- A systems engineer by himself cannot model a complex system; for this he is assisted by experts from the relevant subject areas.
- Examination by subject experts: when the value of the assessment criterion cannot be established objectively and accurately. The examination is carried out in 4 stages:
- Selection of respondents to obtain qualified opinions on the issue under consideration.
- Creation of a draft questionnaire. A questionnaire with precise questions is easier to evaluate, but if it is too closed, there is a risk of missing important points.
- Conducting interviews with specialists on the questionnaire, including conducting an in-depth discussion of the problem to obtain a more accurate opinion.
- Analyze the results obtained with several different people, comparing their feedback until an agreement on the classification of criteria for assessment or decision options is reached.
The most commonly used analytical models in the framework of systems analysis are shown in the table.
The main pitfalls and successful practices of systems analysis are described in two sections below.Model type Description Deterministic (defined) models A deterministic model is a model that does not depend on the theory of probability. - This category includes statistic-based models. The principle is to create a model based on a significant amount of data and the results of previous projects. They can only be applied to those system components whose technology is already known.
- By analogy models also use previous designs. The element under study is compared with an existing element with known characteristics. Then these characteristics are refined based on the experience of specialists.
- Learning curves allow you to anticipate a change in characteristic or technology. One example: "Every time the number of modules produced doubles, the cost of that module is reduced by a certain, constant fraction."
Stochastic (probabilistic) models If the model contains random variables, i.e. determined only by some probabilistic characteristics, then the model is called stochastic (probabilistic, random). In this case, all the results obtained when considering the model are stochastic in nature and must be interpreted accordingly.
Probability theory allows us to classify possible solutions as a consequence of many events. These models are applicable for a limited number of events with simple combinations of possible options.Multi-criteria models If there are more than 10 criteria, it is recommended to use multi-criteria models. They are obtained as a result of the following actions: - Build a hierarchy of criteria;
- Associate with each criterion each branch of the tree with its "weight" relative to the criteria of the same level.
- The weight for each “leaf” of criteria for each branch is calculated by multiplying by all the weights of the branch.
- Evaluate each alternative solution according to the criteria leaves, summarize the scores and compare with each other.
- Sensitivity analysis can be performed using a computer to obtain an accurate result.
Underwater rocks
Underwater rock Description Analytical modeling is not a decision-making tool An analytic model provides an analytic result from the analyzed data. It should be seen as an aid, but not as a decision-making tool. Models and levels of system decomposition The model can be well adapted for the nth level of system decomposition and is incompatible with a higher level model that uses data from child levels. It is important for the systems engineer to ensure that the models are consistent at different levels. Optimization is not the sum of optimized elements The overall optimization of the system under study is not the sum of the optimization of each of its parts. Proven methodologies
Methodology Description Stay in the operational field Models can never show all the behavior and response of a system: they operate in a limited space with a narrow set of variables. When using a model, you should always ensure that the inputs and parameters are part of the operational field. Otherwise, there is a high risk of incorrect results. Develop models Models should evolve throughout the project: by changing parameter settings, introducing new data (changing criteria for evaluation, functions performed, requirements, etc.), and by using new tools when the previous ones reach their limits. Use multiple types of models It is recommended that several different types of models be used simultaneously to compare results and take into account other aspects of the system. Maintain consistency in context elements Simulation results are always obtained within the context of the simulation: the tools used, the assumptions, the parameters and data entered, and the dispersion of the outputs.
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Tavrichesky Federal University named after IN AND. Vernadsky
Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science
Abstract on the topic:
"System Analysis"
Completed a 3rd year student, 302 groups
Taganov Alexander
supervisor
Stonyakin Fedor Sergeevich
Plan
1. Definition of system analysis
1.1 Building the model
1.2 Statement of the research problem
1.3 Solution of the set mathematical problem
1.4 Characteristics of the tasks of system analysis
2.
3. System analysis procedures
4.
4.1 Formation of the problem
4.2 Setting goals
5. Generating alternatives
6.
Output
Bibliography
1. System Analysis Definitions
Systems analysis as a discipline was formed as a result of the need to research and design complex systems, to manage them in conditions of incompleteness of information, limited resources and lack of time. Systems analysis is a further development of a number of disciplines, such as operations research, optimal control theory, decision theory, expert analysis, system operation organization theory, etc. To successfully solve the assigned tasks, system analysis uses the entire set of formal and informal procedures. The listed theoretical disciplines are the basis and methodological basis of systems analysis. Thus, systems analysis is an interdisciplinary course that generalizes the methodology for studying complex technical, natural and social systems. The widespread dissemination of ideas and methods of systems analysis, and most importantly, their successful application in practice became possible only with the introduction and widespread use of computers. It is the use of a computer as a tool for solving difficult tasks made it possible to move from the construction of theoretical models of systems to their widespread practical application. In this regard, N.N. Moiseev writes that systems analysis is a set of methods based on the use of computers and focused on the study of complex systems - technical, economic, environmental, etc. The central problem of systems analysis is the problem of decision making. With regard to the problems of research, design and management of complex systems, the decision-making problem is associated with the choice of a certain alternative in conditions of various kinds of uncertainty. Uncertainty is due to the multi-criteria nature of optimization problems, the uncertainty of the development goals of the systems, the ambiguity of the system development scenarios, the lack of a priori information about the system, the influence of random factors during the dynamic development of the system, and other conditions. Given these circumstances, systems analysis can be defined as a discipline dealing with the problems of decision-making in conditions when the choice of an alternative requires the analysis of complex information of various physical nature.
Systems analysis is a synthetic discipline. It can be divided into three main areas. These three directions correspond to the three stages that are always present in the study of complex systems:
1) building a model of the investigated object;
2) statement of the research problem;
3) solution of the stated mathematical problem. Let's consider these stages.
system math generation
1.1 Building the model
The construction of a model (formalization of the studied system, process or phenomenon) is a description of the process in the language of mathematics. When building a model, a mathematical description of the phenomena and processes occurring in the system is carried out. Since knowledge is always relative, a description in any language reflects only some aspects of the processes taking place and is never absolutely complete. On the other hand, it should be noted that when building a model, it is necessary to focus on those aspects of the process under study that are of interest to the researcher. The desire to reflect all aspects of the existence of the system when constructing a model of a system is deeply mistaken. When conducting a system analysis, as a rule, they are interested in the dynamic behavior of the system, and when describing the dynamics from the point of view of the research being conducted, there are primary parameters and interactions, but there are parameters that are insignificant in this study. Thus, the quality of the model is determined by the compliance of the performed description with the requirements for research, the compliance of the results obtained using the model with the course of the observed process or phenomenon. The construction of a mathematical model is the basis of all systems analysis, the central stage in the study or design of any system. The result of the entire system analysis depends on the quality of the model.
1.2 Statement of the research problem
At this stage, the purpose of the analysis is formulated. The purpose of the study is assumed to be an external factor in relation to the system. Thus, the goal becomes an independent object of research. The goal should be formalized. The task of systems analysis is to carry out the necessary analysis of uncertainties, constraints and formulate, ultimately, some optimization problem.
Here NS - an element of some normalized space G determined by the nature of the model, , where E - a set that can have an arbitrarily complex nature, determined by the structure of the model and the characteristics of the system under study. Thus, the problem of systems analysis at this stage is treated as some kind of optimization problem. By analyzing the system requirements, i.e. goals that the researcher intends to achieve, and those uncertainties that are inevitably present, the researcher must formulate the goal of analysis in the language of mathematics. The optimization language turns out to be natural and convenient here, but it is by no means the only possible one.
1.3 Solution of the set mathematical problem
Only this third stage of analysis can be attributed to the stage itself, which is used in full extent mathematical methods. Although without knowledge of mathematics and the capabilities of its apparatus, the successful implementation of the first two stages is impossible, since both when building a model of the system and when formulating the goals and objectives of analysis wide application should find methods of formalization. However, we note that it is at the final stage of system analysis that subtle mathematical methods may be required. But it should be borne in mind that the tasks of system analysis can have a number of features that lead to the need to use, along with formal procedures, heuristic approaches. The reasons for turning to heuristic methods are primarily related to the lack of a priori information about the processes occurring in the analyzed system. Also, such reasons include the large dimension of the vector NS and the complexity of the structure of the set G... In this case, the difficulties arising from the need to apply informal analysis procedures are often decisive. The successful solution of the problems of systems analysis requires the use of informal reasoning at each stage of the study. In view of this, checking the quality of the solution, its compliance with the original research goal turns into a major theoretical problem.
1.4 Characteristics of the tasks of system analysis
Systems analysis is currently at the forefront of scientific research. It is intended to provide a scientific apparatus for the analysis and study of complex systems. The leading role of systems analysis is due to the fact that the development of science has led to the formulation of the tasks that system analysis is designed to solve. The peculiarity of the current stage is that system analysis, having not yet had time to form into a full-fledged scientific discipline, is forced to exist and develop in conditions when society begins to feel the need to apply insufficiently developed and tested methods and results and is not able to postpone the decision related to them tasks for tomorrow. This is the source of both the strength and the weakness of the system analysis: strength - because it constantly feels the impact of the needs of practice, is forced to continuously expand the range of research objects and does not have the opportunity to abstract from the real needs of society; weaknesses - because often the use of "raw", insufficiently developed methods of systemic research leads to the adoption of hasty decisions, neglect of real difficulties.
Let us consider the main tasks to be solved by the efforts of specialists and which need further development. First, it should be noted the tasks of studying the system of interactions of the analyzed objects with the environment. The solution to this problem involves:
· Drawing the boundary between the studied system and the environment, which predetermines the maximum depth of influence of the considered interactions, which are limited to the consideration;
· Determination of real resources of such interaction;
consideration of interactions of the system under study with the system of a higher level.
Problems of the next type are associated with the design of alternatives for this interaction, alternatives for the development of the system in time and space.
An important direction in the development of systems analysis methods is associated with attempts to create new possibilities for constructing original solution alternatives, unexpected strategies, unusual ideas and hidden structures. In other words, we are talking here about the development of methods and means for enhancing the inductive capabilities of human thinking, in contrast to its deductive capabilities, which, in fact, is aimed at developing formal logical means. Research in this direction has begun only quite recently, and there is still no single conceptual apparatus in them. Nevertheless, several important directions can be distinguished here, such as the development of the formal apparatus of inductive logic, methods of morphological analysis and other structural and syntactic methods for constructing new alternatives, methods of syntactics and organization of group interaction in solving creative problems, as well as the study of the main paradigms search thinking.
Tasks of the third type consist in the construction of a set of simulation models that describe the influence of this or that interaction on the behavior of the research object. Note that in systemic studies, the goal of creating a certain supermodel is not pursued. We are talking about the development of private models, each of which solves its own specific issues.
Even after similar simulation models created and investigated, the question of bringing various aspects of the behavior of the system into a certain unified scheme remains open. However, it can and should be solved not by building a supermodel, but by analyzing the reactions to the observed behavior of other interacting objects, i.e. by studying the behavior of analogous objects and transferring the results of these studies to the object of system analysis. Such a study provides a basis for a meaningful understanding of the situations of interaction and the structure of interconnections that determine the place of the system under study in the structure of the supersystem, of which it is a component.
Tasks of the fourth type are associated with the construction of decision-making models. Any systemic study is associated with the study of various alternatives for the development of the system. The task of system analysts is to choose and justify the best development alternative. At the stage of developing and making decisions, it is necessary to take into account the interaction of the system with its subsystems, to combine the goals of the system with the goals of subsystems, to highlight global and secondary goals.
The most developed and at the same time the most specific area of scientific creativity is associated with the development of decision-making theory and the formation of target structures, programs and plans. There is no shortage of works and active researchers here. However, in this case too many results are at the level of unconfirmed inventions and discrepancies in understanding both the essence of the tasks at hand and the means of solving them. Research in this area includes:
a) building a theory for evaluating the effectiveness of decisions made or formed plans and programs; b) solving the problem of multicriteria in assessing the alternatives of decision or planning;
b) investigating the problem of uncertainty, especially associated not with factors of a statistical nature, but with the uncertainty of expert judgments and deliberately created uncertainty associated with the simplification of ideas about the behavior of the system;
c) development of the problem of aggregating individual preferences on decisions affecting the interests of several parties that affect the behavior of the system;
d) study of the specific features of socio-economic performance criteria;
e) creation of methods for checking the logical consistency of target structures and plans and establishing the necessary balance between the predeterminedness of the action program and its readiness for restructuring when new information arrives, both about external events and changes in ideas about the implementation of this program.
The latter direction requires a new understanding of the real functions of target structures, plans, programs and the definition of those that they must perform as well as the connections between them.
The considered tasks of system analysis do not cover a complete list of tasks. Here are the ones that are most difficult to solve. It should be noted that all the tasks of systemic research are closely interconnected with each other, cannot be isolated and solved separately, both in time and in the composition of the performers. Moreover, in order to solve all these problems, a researcher must have a broad outlook and possess a rich arsenal of methods and means of scientific research.
2. Features of system analysis tasks
The ultimate goal of system analysis is to resolve a problematic situation that has arisen in front of the object of the ongoing systemic research (usually a specific organization, team, enterprise, separate region, social structure, etc.). System analysis deals with the study of a problem situation, clarification of its causes, development of options for its elimination, decision-making and organization of the further functioning of the system that resolves the problem situation. The initial stage of any systemic research is the study of the object of the conducted system analysis with its subsequent formalization. At this stage, problems arise that fundamentally distinguish the methodology of systems research from the methodology of other disciplines, namely, a two-pronged problem is solved in systems analysis. On the one hand, it is necessary to formalize the object of systemic research, on the other hand, the process of studying the system, the process of formulating and solving a problem, is subject to formalization. Let's give an example from the theory of systems design. The modern theory of computer-aided design of complex systems can be considered as one of the parts of systems research. According to her, the problem of designing complex systems has two aspects. First, it is required to carry out a formalized description of the design object. Moreover, at this stage, the tasks of a formalized description of both the static component of the system (basically, its structural organization is subject to formalization) and its behavior in time (dynamic aspects that reflect its functioning) are solved. Second, the design process needs to be formalized. The constituent parts of the design process are methods of forming various design solutions, methods of their engineering analysis and methods of making decisions on choosing the best options for implementing the system.
An important place in the procedures of system analysis is occupied by the problem of decision making. As a feature of the tasks facing system analysts, it is necessary to note the requirement of optimality of the decisions made. Currently, it is necessary to solve the problems of optimal control of complex systems, optimal design of systems that include a large number of elements and subsystems. The development of technology has reached a level at which the creation of a simply workable structure by itself no longer always satisfies the leading industries. It is necessary during the design to ensure best performance for a number of characteristics of new products, for example, to achieve maximum performance, minimum dimensions, cost, etc. while maintaining all other requirements within the specified limits. Thus, practice makes demands on the development of not just a workable product, object, system, but the creation of an optimal project. Similar reasoning is true for other types of activities. When organizing the functioning of an enterprise, requirements are formulated to maximize the efficiency of its activities, the reliability of the equipment, optimize the strategies for servicing systems, allocating resources, etc.
In various areas of practical activity (technology, economics, social sciences, psychology), situations arise when it is required to make decisions for which it is not possible to fully take into account the conditions predetermining them. Decision-making in this case will take place under conditions of uncertainty, which has a different nature. One of the simplest types of uncertainty is the uncertainty of the initial information, which manifests itself in various aspects. First of all, let us note such an aspect as the impact on the system of unknown factors.
Uncertainty due to unknown factors also happens different types... The simplest kind of this kind of uncertainty is stochastic uncertainty... It takes place in cases where unknown factors are random variables or random functions, the statistical characteristics of which can be determined on the basis of an analysis of the past experience of the functioning of the object of systemic research.
The next kind of uncertainty is ambiguity of goals... The formulation of a goal when solving problems of systems analysis is one of the key procedures, because the goal is an object that determines the formulation of the problem of systemic research. The ambiguity of the goal is a consequence of the multi-criteria nature of the tasks of system analysis. The purpose of the goal, the choice of criterion, and the formalization of the goal are almost always a difficult problem. Problems with many criteria are typical for large technical, economic, and economic projects.
And, finally, it should be noted such a type of uncertainty as uncertainty associated with the subsequent influence of the results of the decision made on the problem situation. The point is that the decision taken at the moment and implemented in a certain system is designed to affect the functioning of the system. Actually, this is why it is accepted, since, according to the idea of system analysts, this decision should resolve the problem situation. However, since the decision is made for a complex system, the development of the system over time can have many strategies. And, of course, at the stage of forming a decision and making a control action, analysts may not have a complete picture of the development of the situation. When making a decision, there are various recommendations for predicting the development of the system in time. One of these approaches recommends predicting some "average" dynamics of the system's development and making decisions based on such a strategy. Another approach recommends when making a decision to proceed from the possibility of realizing the most unfavorable situation.
As the next feature of systems analysis, we note the role of models as a means of studying systems that are the object of systems research. Any methods of systems analysis are based on a mathematical description of certain facts, phenomena, processes. When using the word "model", they always mean some description that reflects precisely those features of the process under study that are of interest to the researcher. The accuracy and quality of the description are determined, first of all, by the conformity of the model to the requirements for research, the conformity of the results obtained with the help of the model to the observed course of the process. If the language of mathematics is used in the development of a model, they speak of mathematical models. The construction of a mathematical model is the basis of all systems analysis. It is a central stage in the research or design of any system. The success of all subsequent analysis depends on the quality of the model. However, in system analysis, along with formalized procedures, informal, heuristic research methods occupy an important place. There are a number of reasons for this. The first is as follows. When constructing models of systems, there may be a lack or lack of initial information for determining the parameters of the model.
In this case, an expert survey of specialists is carried out in order to eliminate uncertainty or, at least, to reduce it, i.e. the experience and knowledge of specialists can be used to assign the initial parameters of the model.
Another reason for using heuristic methods is as follows. Attempts to formalize the processes taking place in the systems under study are always associated with the formulation of certain restrictions and simplifications. Here it is important not to cross the line beyond which further simplification will lead to the loss of the essence of the described phenomena. In other words-
mi, the desire to adapt a well-studied mathematical apparatus to describe the phenomena under study can distort their essence and lead to wrong decisions. In this situation, it is required to use the scientific intuition of the researcher, his experience and ability to formulate the idea of solving the problem, i.e. a subconscious, internal substantiation of algorithms for constructing a model and methods of their research is used, which does not lend itself to formal analysis. Heuristic methods for finding solutions are formed by a person or a group of researchers in the process of their creative activity. A heuristic is a collection of knowledge, experience, intelligence used to obtain solutions using informal rules. Heuristic methods turn out to be useful and even irreplaceable in studies that are non-numerical in nature or differ in complexity, uncertainty, and variability.
Surely, when considering specific tasks of system analysis, it will be possible to highlight some of their features, but, according to the author, the features noted here are common to all tasks of systems research.
3. System analysis procedures
In the previous section, three stages of the systems analysis were formulated. These stages are the basis for solving any problem of conducting systemic research. Their essence lies in the fact that it is necessary to build a model of the system under study, i.e. give a formalized description of the object under study, formulate a criterion for solving the problem of system analysis, i.e. set the research task and further solve the task. These three stages of the system analysis are an enlarged scheme for solving the problem. In reality, the tasks of systems analysis are quite complex, so listing the stages cannot be an end in itself. We also note that the systems analysis methodology and guidelines are not universal - each study has its own characteristics and requires intuition, initiative and imagination from the performers in order to correctly determine the goals of the project and be successful in achieving them. There have been numerous attempts to create a fairly general, universal system analysis algorithm. A careful examination of the algorithms available in the literature shows that they have a large degree of generality in general and differences in particulars and details. We will try to outline the basic procedures of the system analysis algorithm, which are a generalization of the sequence of stages of such an analysis, formulated by a number of authors, and reflect its general laws.
We list the main procedures for system analysis:
· Study of the structure of the system, analysis of its components, identification of relationships between individual elements;
· Collecting data on the functioning of the system, researching information flows, observing and experimenting with the analyzed system;
· Building models;
· Checking the adequacy of models, analysis of uncertainty and sensitivity;
· Research of resource opportunities;
· Determination of the goals of system analysis;
· Formation of criteria;
· Generation of alternatives;
· Implementation of choice and decision making;
· Implementation of the analysis results.
4. Defining the goals of systems analysis
4.1 Fproblem formulation
For traditional sciences, the initial stage of work is to formulate a formal problem to be solved. In the study of a complex system, this is an intermediate result, which is preceded by a long work on structuring the original problem. The starting point for defining goals in systems analysis is related to problem formulation. The following feature of the system analysis tasks should be noted here. The need for system analysis arises when the customer has already formulated his problem, i.e. the problem not only exists, but also requires a solution. However, the systems analyst should be aware that the problem formulated by the customer is an approximate working version. The reasons why the original formulation of the problem should be considered as a first approximation are as follows. The system for which the purpose of the system analysis is formulated is not isolated. It is connected with other systems, it is included as part of a certain supersystem, for example, the automated control system of a department or workshop at an enterprise is a structural unit of the automated control system of the entire enterprise. Therefore, when formulating a problem for the system under consideration, it is necessary to take into account how the solution to this problem will affect the systems with which this system is connected. Inevitably, the planned changes will affect both the subsystems that make up this system and the supersystem that contains this system. Thus, any real problem should be treated not as a single one, but as an object from a number of interrelated problems.
When formulating a system of problems, the systems analyst should follow some guidelines. First, the opinion of the customer should be taken as a basis. As a rule, this is the head of the organization, for which the system analysis is carried out. It is he, as noted above, that generates the original formulation of the problem. Further, the systems analyst, having familiarized himself with the formulated problem, must understand the tasks that were assigned to the leader, the constraints and circumstances affecting the leader's behavior, the conflicting goals between which he is trying to find a compromise. The systems analyst should study the organization for which the systems analysis is being conducted. It is important to be thoroughly familiar with the existing management hierarchy, the functions of the various groups, as well as previous research on relevant issues, if any. The analyst should refrain from expressing his preconceived notions about the problem and from trying to squeeze it into the framework of his previous ideas in order to use the approach he desires to solve it. Finally, the analyst should not leave unverified the statements and comments of the leader. As already noted, the problem formulated by the leader must, firstly, be expanded to a complex of problems agreed with supra- and subsystems, and, secondly, it must be coordinated with all interested parties.
It should also be noted that each of the interested parties has its own vision of the problem, attitude to it. Therefore, when formulating a set of problems, it is necessary to take into account what changes and why one or the other side wants to make. In addition, the problem must be considered comprehensively, including in a temporary, historical perspective. It is required to anticipate how the formulated problems may change over time or due to the fact that the research will interest managers at another level. When formulating a set of problems, a systems analyst must know the big picture of who is interested in a particular solution.
4.2 Setting goals
After the problem that needs to be overcome in the course of the system analysis has been formulated, they proceed to defining the goal. Determining the purpose of the system analysis means answering the question of what needs to be done to solve the problem. To formulate a goal means to indicate the direction in which to move in order to solve an existing problem, to show the paths that lead away from the existing problem situation.
When formulating a goal, you must always be aware of the fact that it plays an active role in management. In the definition of the goal, it was reflected that the goal is the desired result of the development of the system. Thus, the formulated goal of the system analysis will determine the entire further complex of works. Therefore, the goals must be realistic. Setting realistic goals will direct all the activities of performing systems analysis to obtain a certain useful result. It is also important to note that the idea of the goal depends on the stage of cognition of the object, and as the ideas about it develop, the goal can be reformulated. Changes in goals in time can occur not only in form, due to an ever better understanding of the essence of the phenomena occurring in the system under study, but also in content, due to changes in objective conditions and subjective attitudes that affect the choice of goals. The timing of changes in ideas about goals, aging goals are different and depend on the level of the hierarchy of consideration of the object. Higher tier targets are more durable. The dynamism of the objectives should be taken into account in the systems analysis.
When formulating a goal, it is necessary to take into account that the goal is influenced by both external factors in relation to the system and internal ones. At the same time, internal factors are the same factors objectively influencing the process of goal formation as external ones.
Further, it should be noted that even at the highest level of the hierarchy of the system, there is a multiplicity of goals. When analyzing a problem, it is necessary to take into account the goals of all stakeholders. Among the many goals, it is desirable to try to find or form a global goal. If this cannot be done, the goals should be ranked in the order of their preference to solve the problem in the analyzed system.
The study of the goals of stakeholders in the problem should provide for the possibility of clarifying, expanding or even replacing them. This circumstance is the main reason for the iterative system analysis.
The choice of the subject's goals is decisively influenced by the value system that he adheres to, therefore, in the formation of goals, a necessary stage of work is to identify the value system that the decision-maker adheres to. So, for example, distinguish between technocratic and humanistic value systems. According to the first system, nature is proclaimed as a source of inexhaustible resources, man is the king of nature. Everyone knows the thesis: “We cannot wait for favors from nature. It is our task to take them from her. " The humanistic value system says that natural resources are limited, that a person should live in harmony with nature, etc. The practice of human society development shows that following a technocratic value system leads to disastrous consequences. On the other hand, a complete rejection of technocratic values also has no justification. It is necessary not to oppose these systems, but to reasonably supplement them and formulate the development goals of the system, taking into account both value systems.
5. Generating alternatives
The next stage of the system analysis is the creation of many possible ways to achieve the stated goal. In other words, at this stage, it is necessary to generate many alternatives, from which the choice of the best path for the development of the system will then be carried out. This stage of the systems analysis is very important and difficult. Its importance lies in the fact that the ultimate goal of systems analysis is to choose the best alternative on a given set and to justify this choice. If the best one did not get into the formed set of alternatives, then none of the most perfect methods of analysis will help to calculate it. The difficulty of this stage is due to the need to generate a sufficiently complete set of alternatives, including, at first glance, even the most unrealizable ones.
Generating alternatives, i.e. ideas about possible ways to achieve a goal is a real creative process. There are a number of recommendations on possible approaches to performing this procedure. It is necessary to generate as many alternatives as possible. The following generation methods are available:
a) search for alternatives in patent and journal literature;
b) involving several experts with different backgrounds and experience;
c) an increase in the number of alternatives due to their combination, the formation of intermediate options between those proposed earlier;
d) modification of an existing alternative, i.e. the formation of alternatives that are only partially different from the known;
e) inclusion of alternatives opposite to those proposed, including the "zero" alternative (do nothing, ie consider the consequences of events without the intervention of systems engineers);
f) stakeholder interviews and broader questionnaires; g) including into consideration even those alternatives that at first glance seem far-fetched;
g) generation of alternatives designed for different time intervals (long-term, short-term, emergency).
When performing work on generating alternatives, it is important to create favorable conditions for employees performing this type of activity. Psychological factors affecting the intensity of creative activity are of great importance, therefore it is necessary to strive to create a favorable climate in the workplace of employees.
There is another danger that arises when performing work on the formation of many alternatives, which must be mentioned. If we specifically strive to ensure that at the initial stage as many alternatives as possible are obtained, i.e. try to make the set of alternatives as complete as possible, then for some problems their number can reach many tens. A detailed study of each of them will require an unacceptably large investment of time and money. Therefore, in this case, it is necessary to conduct a preliminary analysis of the alternatives and try to narrow the set at the early stages of the analysis. At this stage of the analysis, qualitative methods are used to compare alternatives, without resorting to more accurate quantitative methods. Thereby, coarse screening is carried out.
Let us now give the methods used in systems analysis to carry out work on the formation of a variety of alternatives.
6. Implementation of analysis results
Systems analysis is an applied science, its ultimate goal is to change the existing situation in accordance with the set goals. The final judgment about the correctness and usefulness of systems analysis can be made only on the basis of the results of its practical application.
The final result will depend not only on how perfect and theoretically substantiated the methods used in the analysis, but also on how competently and efficiently the received recommendations are implemented.
Currently, increased attention is paid to the implementation of the results of system analysis in practice. In this direction, the work of R. Ackoff can be noted. It should be noted that the practice of systems research and the practice of implementing their results differ significantly for systems of different types. According to the classification, systems are divided into three types: natural, artificial and socio-technical. In systems of the first type, connections are formed and act in a natural way. Examples of such systems are ecological, physical, chemical, biological, etc. systems. In systems of the second type, connections are formed as a result of human activity. All kinds of technical systems are examples. In systems of the third type, in addition to natural connections, interpersonal connections play an important role. Such connections are due not to the natural properties of objects, but to cultural traditions, the upbringing of the subjects participating in the system, their character and other features.
Systems analysis is used to study systems of all three types. Each of them has its own characteristics that require consideration when organizing work on the implementation of the results. The largest share of semi-structured problems in systems of the third type. Consequently, the most difficult practice is to implement the results of systems research in these systems.
When implementing the results of system analysis, the following circumstance must be borne in mind. The work is carried out for a client (customer) who has the power sufficient to change the system in the ways that will be determined as a result of the system analysis. All stakeholders should be directly involved. Stakeholders are those who are responsible for solving the problem and those who are directly affected by the problem. As a result of the implementation of system studies, it is necessary to ensure the improvement of the customer's organization from the point of view of at least one of the interested parties; at the same time, the deterioration of this work from the point of view of all other participants in the problem situation is not allowed.
Speaking about the implementation of the results of systems analysis, it is important to note that in real life the situation when research is first carried out, and then their results are introduced into practice, is extremely rare, only in those cases when it comes to simple systems. In the study of socio-technical systems, they change over time, both in themselves and under the influence of research. In the process of carrying out a system analysis, the state of the problem situation, the goals of the system, the personal and quantitative composition of the participants, the relationship between the interested parties change. In addition, it should be noted that the implementation of the decisions made affects all factors of the functioning of the system. The stages of research and implementation in this type of systems actually merge, i.e. there is an iterative process. The conducted research has an impact on the life of the system, and this modifies the problem situation, poses new task research. A new problematic situation stimulates further system analysis, etc. Thus, the problem is gradually solved through active research.
Vconclusion
An important feature system analysis is the study of goal-setting processes and the development of tools for working with goals (methods, structuring goals). Sometimes even systems analysis is defined as a methodology for the study of purposeful systems.
Bibliography
Moiseev, N.N. Mathematical problems of system analysis / N.N. Moiseev. - M.: Nauka, 1981.
Optner, S. System analysis for solving business and industrial problems / S. Optner. - M.: Soviet radio,
Fundamentals of a systematic approach and their application to the development of territorial ACS / ed. F.I. Peregudova. - Tomsk: Publishing house of TSU, 1976 .-- 440 p.
Fundamentals of General Systems Theory: textbook. allowance. - SPb. : YOU, 1992. - Part 1.
Peregudov, F.I. Introduction to systems analysis: textbook. allowance / F.I. Peregudov, F.P. Tarasenko. - M.: Higher school, 1989 .-- 367 p.
Rybnikov, K.A. History of mathematics: textbook / K.A. Rybnikov. - M.: Publishing house of Moscow State University, 1994 .-- 496 p.
Stroyk, D. Ya. A short sketch of the history of mathematics / D.Ya. Construction worker. - M.: Nauka, 1990 .-- 253 p.
Stepanov, Yu.S. Semiotics / Yu.S. Stepanov. - M.: Nauka, 1971. - 145 p.
Systems theory and methods of system analysis in management and communication / V.N. Volkova, V.A. Voronkov, A.A. Denisov and others -M. : Radio and communication, 1983 .-- 248 p.
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- Introduction 2
- 1.The essence of the systems approach as the basis of systems analysis 5
- 1.1 Content and characteristics of the systems approach 5
- 1.2 Basic principles of the systems approach 8
- 2.The main elements of systems analysis 11
- 2.1 Conceptual apparatus of system analysis 11
- 2.2 Principles of Systems Analysis 15
- 2.3 Methods of system analysis 20
- Conclusion 29
- Literature 31
- Introduction
- In the conditions of the dynamism of modern production and society, management should be in a state of continuous development, which today cannot be ensured without researching trends and opportunities, without choosing alternatives and directions of development, performing management functions and methods of making managerial decisions. The development and improvement of the enterprise is based on a thorough and in-depth knowledge of the organization's activities, which requires a study of management systems.
- Research is carried out in accordance with the chosen goal and in a certain sequence. Research is an integral part of the organization's management and is aimed at improving the basic characteristics of the management process. When conducting research on control systems, the object of research is the control system itself, which is characterized by certain features and is subject to a number of requirements.
- The effectiveness of the study of control systems is largely determined by the selected and used research methods. Research methods are methods, techniques for conducting research. Their competent use contributes to obtaining reliable and complete results of the study of problems that have arisen in the organization. The choice of research methods, the integration of various methods during research is determined by the knowledge, experience and intuition of the specialists conducting the research.
- To identify the specifics of the work of organizations and the development of measures to improve production and economic activities, a system analysis is used. The main goal of the system analysis is the development and implementation of such a control system, which is selected as a reference system, to the greatest extent corresponding to all the requirements of optimality. System analysis is complex in nature and is based on a set of approaches, the application of which will allow the best analysis to be carried out and to obtain the desired results. For successful holding analysis, it is necessary to select a team of specialists who are well acquainted with the methods of economic analysis and the organization of production.
- Trying to understand a system of great complexity, consisting of many diverse in characteristics and, in turn, complex subsystems, scientific cognition proceeds through differentiation, studying the subsystems themselves and ignoring their interaction with the large system into which they are included and which has a decisive effect on the entire the global system as a whole. But complex systems are not limited to the simple sum of their components; in order to understand the integrity, its analysis must certainly be supplemented by a deep systemic synthesis, here an interdisciplinary approach and interdisciplinary research are needed, a completely new scientific toolkit is needed.
- The relevance of the chosen topic of the course work lies in the fact that in order to comprehend the laws governing human activity, it is important to learn to understand how in each specific case the general context of perception of the next tasks develops, how to bring into the system (hence the name - "system analysis") initially scattered and redundant information about the problem situation, how to coordinate with each other and derive one of the other ideas and goals of different levels related to a single activity.
- Here lies a fundamental problem that affects almost the very foundations of the organization of any human activity. The same task in a different context, at different levels of decision making, requires completely different ways of organizing and different knowledge. During the transition, as the action plan is concretized from one level to another, the formulations of both the main goals and the main principles on which their achievement is based are radically transformed. And finally, at the stage of distribution of limited common resources between individual programs, one has to compare the fundamentally incomparable, since the effectiveness of each of the programs can be assessed only by some one inherent criterion only.
- The systems approach is one of the most important methodological principles of modern science and practice. Systems analysis methods are widely used to solve many theoretical and applied problems.
- The main objectives of the course work is to study the essence of the systems approach, as well as the basic principles and methods of systems analysis.
- 1. The essence of the systems approach as the basis of systems analysis
1 Content and characteristics of the systems approach
Since the middle of the 20th century. intensive developments are underway in the field of systems approach and general systems theory. The systems approach has developed, solving a triune task: accumulation in general scientific concepts and concepts newest results social, natural and technical sciences concerning the systemic organization of objects of reality and methods of their cognition; integration of the principles and experience of the development of philosophy, primarily the results of the development of the philosophical principle of consistency and related categories; the application of the conceptual apparatus and modeling tools developed on this basis for solving urgent complex problems.
SYSTEM APPROACH is a methodological direction in science, the main task of which is to develop research methods and design complex objects - systems of different types and classes. The systems approach represents a certain stage in the development of methods of cognition, methods of research and design activities, methods of describing and explaining the nature of analyzed or artificially created objects.
At present, the systematic approach is increasingly being used in management, experience is accumulating in constructing system descriptions of research objects. The need for a systematic approach is due to the enlargement and complication of the studied systems, the needs of managing large systems and the integration of knowledge.
"System" is a Greek word (systema), literally meaning a whole made up of parts; a set of elements that are in relationships and connections with each other and form a certain integrity, unity.
Other words can be formed from the word "system": "systemic", "systematize", "systematic". In a narrow sense, the systemic approach is understood as the application of systemic methods to study real physical, biological, social and other systems.
The systems approach in a broad sense also includes the use of systemic methods for solving problems of taxonomy, planning and organizing a complex and systematic experiment.
The term "systems approach" encompasses a group of methods by which a real object is described as a collection of interacting components. These methods are developed within the framework of individual scientific disciplines, interdisciplinary syntheses and general scientific concepts.
The general tasks of systems research are the analysis and synthesis of systems. In the process of analysis, the system is separated from the environment, its composition is determined,
structures, functions, integral characteristics (properties), as well as backbone factors and relationships with the environment.
In the process of synthesis, a model of a real system is created, the level of abstract description of the system rises, the completeness of its composition and structures, the bases of description, the laws of dynamics and behavior are determined.
The systems approach is applied to sets of objects, individual objects and their components, as well as to the properties and integral characteristics of objects.
A systematic approach is not an end in itself. In each specific case, its application should give a real, quite tangible effect. The systematic approach allows one to see gaps in knowledge about a given object, to detect their incompleteness, to determine the tasks of scientific research, in some cases - by interpolation and extrapolation - to predict the properties of the missing parts of the description. There are several types of systems approach: integrated, structural, holistic.
It is necessary to define the scope of these concepts.
An integrated approach suggests the presence of a set of components of an object or applied research methods. In this case, neither the relationships between objects, nor the completeness of their composition, nor the relationship of components as a whole are taken into account. Mainly the tasks of statics are solved: the quantitative ratio of components and the like.
The structural approach offers the study of the composition (subsystems) and structures of an object. With this approach, there is still no correlation between subsystems (parts) and the system (whole). The decomposition of systems into subsystems is not carried out in a single way. The dynamics of structures is usually not considered.
In a holistic approach, the relationship is studied not only between parts of an object, but also between parts and the whole. The decomposition of the whole into parts is unique. So, for example, it is customary to say that "the whole is that from which nothing can be taken away and to which nothing can be added." The holistic approach offers the study of the composition (subsystems) and structures of an object not only in statics, but also in dynamics, i.e., it offers the study of the behavior and evolution of systems. a holistic approach is not applicable to all systems (objects). but only to those that are characterized by a high degree of functional independence. The most important tasks of the systems approach include:
1) development of means for representing the objects under study and designed as systems;
2) construction of generalized models of the system, models of different classes and specific properties of systems;
3) study of the structure of systems theories and various system concepts and developments.
In a systemic study, the analyzed object is considered as a certain set of elements, the interrelation of which determines the integral properties of this set. The main emphasis is on identifying the variety of connections and relationships that take place both inside the object under study and in its relationship with the external environment, the environment. The properties of an object as an integral system are determined not only and not so much by the summation of the properties of its individual elements, but by the properties of its structure, special system-forming, integrative connections of the object under consideration. To understand the behavior of systems, primarily purposeful, it is necessary to identify the control processes implemented by this system - forms of information transfer from one subsystem to another and ways of influencing some parts of the system on others, coordination of the lower levels of the system from the side of its higher level elements, control, influence on the last of all other subsystems. Significant importance in the systematic approach is attached to identifying the probabilistic nature of the behavior of the objects under study. An important feature of the systems approach is that not only the object, but also the research process itself acts as a complex system, the task of which, in particular, is to combine various models of the object into a single whole. Finally, system objects, as a rule, are not indifferent to the process of their study and in many cases can have a significant impact on it.
1.2 Basic principles of the systems approach
The main principles of the systematic approach are:
1. Integrity, which allows considering the system at the same time as a whole and at the same time as a subsystem for higher levels. 2. The hierarchy of the structure, i.e. the presence of a set (at least two) of elements located on the basis of subordination of the elements of the lower level to the elements of the highest level. The implementation of this principle is clearly visible on the example of any particular organization. As you know, any organization is the interaction of two subsystems: managing and controlled. One obeys the other. 3. Structuring, which allows you to analyze the elements of the system and their relationship within a specific organizational structure. As a rule, the process of functioning of a system is determined not so much by the properties of its individual elements as by the properties of the structure itself.
4. Plurality, allowing the use of a variety of cybernetic, economic and mathematical models to describe individual elements and the system as a whole.
As noted above, with a systematic approach, it is important to study the characteristics of an organization as a system, i.e. characteristics of "input", "process" and characteristics of "output".
With a systematic approach based on marketing research, the "exit" parameters are firstly investigated, i.e. goods or services, namely what to produce, with what quality indicators, with what costs, for whom, at what time to sell and at what price. Answers to these questions must be clear and timely. As a result, the “output” should be a competitive product or service. Then the parameters of the input are determined, i.e. the need for resources (material financial, labor and information) is investigated, which is determined after a detailed study of the organizational and technical level of the system under consideration (level of technology, technology, features of the organization of production, labor and management) and the parameters of the external environment (economic, geopolitical, social, environmental and etc.).
And, finally, no less important is the study of the parameters of the process that transforms resources into finished products. At this stage, depending on the object of research, a production technology or control technology, as well as factors and ways of its improvement, are considered.
Thus, the systematic approach allows us to comprehensively assess any production and economic activity and the activity of the management system at the level of specific characteristics. This will help to analyze any situation within a single system, to identify the nature of the problems of entry, process and exit.
The use of a systematic approach allows you to best organize the decision-making process at all levels in the management system. An integrated approach involves taking into account both internal and external environment organizations. This means that it is necessary to take into account not only internal, but also external factors- economic, geopolitical, social, demographic, environmental, etc. Factors are important aspects in the analysis of organizations and, unfortunately, are not always taken into account. For example, social issues are often overlooked or postponed when designing new organizations. When introducing new technology, ergonomics indicators are not always taken into account, which leads to an increase in worker fatigue and, as a result, to a decrease in labor productivity. When forming new labor collectives, socio-psychological aspects, in particular, problems of labor motivation, are not properly taken into account. Summarizing what has been said, it can be argued that an integrated approach is a prerequisite for solving the problem of analyzing an organization.
The essence of the systems approach has been formulated by many authors. In expanded form, it was formulated by V.G. Afanasyev, who identified a number of interrelated aspects, which together and together make up a systemic approach: - system-element, answering the question of what (what components) the system is formed from;
system-structural, revealing the internal organization of the system, the way of interaction of its constituent components;
- system-functional, showing what functions are performed by the system and its constituent components;
system-communication, revealing the relationship of this system with others, both horizontally and vertically;
system-integrative, showing the mechanisms, factors of preservation, improvement and development of the system;
System-historical, answering the question of how, how the system arose, what stages in its development passed, what are its historical prospects. Fast growth modern organizations and the level of their complexity, the variety of operations performed have led to the fact that the rational implementation of management functions has become extremely difficult, but at the same time even more important for the successful operation of the enterprise. To cope with the inevitable increase in the number of operations and their complexity, a large organization must base its activities on a systems approach. Within this approach, the leader can more effectively integrate his actions in managing the organization.
The systems approach contributes, as already mentioned, mainly to the development of the correct method of thinking about the management process. The leader must think in accordance with a systematic approach. Learning the systems approach instills a mindset that, on the one hand, helps to eliminate unnecessary complexity, and on the other hand, helps the leader to understand the essence of complex problems and make decisions based on a clear understanding of the environment. It is important to structure the task, to outline the boundaries of the system. But it is just as important to consider that the systems that a leader has to deal with in the course of his work are part of larger systems, perhaps involving an entire industry or several, sometimes many, companies and industries, or even society as a whole. These systems are constantly changing: they are created, operate, reorganized and, sometimes, liquidated.
The systems approach is the theoretical and methodological basis for systems analysis.
2. The main elements of system analysis
2.1 Conceptual apparatus of system analysis
System analysis is a scientific method for studying complex, multi-level, multicomponent systems and processes, based on an integrated approach, taking into account the relationships and interactions between the elements of the system, as well as a set of methods for developing, making and justifying decisions in the design, creation and management of social, economic, human -machine and technical systems.
The term "systems analysis" first appeared in 1948 in the works of the RAND corporation in connection with the problems of external management, and in the domestic literature it became widespread after the translation of S. Optner's book. Optner S. L., System analysis for solving business and industrial problems, trans. from English, M., 1969;
Systems analysis is not a set of guidelines or principles for managers, it is a way of thinking in relation to organization and management. System analysis is used in cases where they seek to investigate an object from different angles, in a comprehensive manner. The most common area of systems research is considered to be systems analysis, which is understood as a methodology for solving complex problems and problems based on concepts developed within the framework of systems theory. Systems analysis is also defined as "the application of system concepts to management functions associated with planning", or even to strategic planning and target planning stage.
The involvement of systems analysis methods is necessary primarily because in the decision-making process one has to make a choice under conditions of uncertainty, which is due to the presence of factors that cannot be rigorously quantified. The procedures and methods of system analysis are aimed specifically at proposing alternative solutions to the problem, identifying the scale of uncertainty for each of the options and comparing the options according to one or another performance criterion. Specialists in systems analysis only prepare or recommend solutions, while making a decision remains in the competence of the relevant official (or body).
The intensive expansion of the scope of using system analysis is closely related to the spread of the program-targeted method of management, in which a program is drawn up specifically to solve an important problem, an organization is formed (an institution or a network of institutions) and the necessary material resources are allocated.
A systematic analysis of the activities of an enterprise or organization is carried out at the early stages of work on the creation of a specific management system.
The ultimate goal of systems analysis is the development and implementation of the selected reference model of the control system.
In accordance with the main goal, it is necessary to perform the following systemic studies:
identify the general trends in the development of this enterprise and its place and role in the modern market economy;
to establish the features of the functioning of the enterprise and its individual divisions;
to identify the conditions that ensure the achievement of the set goals;
determine the conditions that impede the achievement of goals;
collect the necessary data for analysis and development of measures to improve the current management system;
use the best practices of other enterprises;
study the necessary information to adapt the selected (synthesized) reference model to the conditions of the enterprise in question.
In the process of system analysis, the following characteristics are found:
the role and place of this enterprise in the industry;
the state of production and economic activities of the enterprise;
production structure of the enterprise;
management system and its organizational structure;
peculiarities of interaction of the enterprise with suppliers, consumers and higher organizations;
innovative needs (possible connections of this enterprise with research and development organizations;
forms and methods of incentives and remuneration of employees.
Thus, a system analysis begins with the clarification or formulation of the goals of a specific management system (enterprise or company) and the search for an efficiency criterion, which should be expressed in the form of a specific indicator. Typically, most organizations are multi-purpose. Many goals follow from the characteristics of the development of an enterprise (company) and its actual state in the period under consideration, as well as the state of the environment (geopolitical, economic, social factors). The primary task of systems analysis is to determine the global development goal of the organization and the goals of its functioning.
Clearly and competently formulated goals for the development of an enterprise (company) are the basis for a systematic analysis and development of a research program.
The system analysis program, in turn, includes a list of issues to be investigated and their priority:
1. Analysis of the organizational subsystem, which includes:
policy analysis (objectives);
concept analysis, i.e. systems of views, assessments, ideas for achieving the intended tasks, ways of solving;
analysis of management methods;
analysis of ways of organizing work;
analysis of the structural and functional diagram;
analysis of the recruitment and placement system;
analysis of information flows;
analysis of the marketing system;
analysis of the security system.
2. Analysis of the economic subsystem and diagnostics of thedacceptance.
Economic diagnostics of an enterprise - analysis and assessment of the economic performance of an enterprise based on the study of individual results, incomplete information in order to identify possible prospects for its development and the consequences of current management decisions. As a result of diagnostics, based on an assessment of the state of farms and its effectiveness, conclusions are drawn that are necessary for making quick but important decisions, for example, about targeted lending, about buying or selling an enterprise, about closing it, etc.
Based on the analysis and research, a forecast and justification is made for changing and optimizing the existing organizational and economic subsystem of the enterprise.
2.2 Principles of systems analysis
The most important principles of systems analysis are as follows: the decision-making process should begin with identifying and clearly formulating the ultimate goals; it is necessary to consider the whole problem as a whole, as a single system and identify all the consequences and interrelationships of each particular decision; it is necessary to identify and analyze possible alternative ways to achieve the goal; the goals of individual departments should not conflict with the goals of the entire program.
System analysis is based on the following principles:
1) unity - joint consideration of the system as a whole and as a set of parts;
2) development - taking into account the variability of the system, its ability to develop, accumulate information, taking into account the dynamics of the environment;
3) a global goal - responsibility for choosing a global goal. The optimum of subsystems is not the optimum of the entire system;
4) functionality - joint consideration of the structure of the system and functions with the priority of functions over the structure;
5) decentralization - a combination of decentralization and centralization;
6) hierarchies - taking into account the subordination and ranking of parts;
7) uncertainties - taking into account the probabilistic occurrence of an event;
8) organization - the degree of implementation of decisions and conclusions.
The system analysis methodology is developed and applied in cases where decision-makers, at the initial stage, do not have sufficient information about the problem situation, allowing them to choose a method for its formalized presentation, form mathematical model or apply one of the new modeling approaches that combine qualitative and quantitative techniques. In such conditions, the representation of objects in the form of systems, the organization of the decision-making process using different modeling methods can help.
In order to organize such a process, it is necessary to determine the sequence of stages, recommend methods for performing these stages, and provide, if necessary, a return to the previous stages. Such a sequence of defined and ordered stages in a certain way with recommended methods or techniques for their implementation is a system analysis technique. The system analysis technique is developed in order to organize the decision-making process in complex problem situations. It should focus on the need to substantiate the completeness of the analysis, the formation of a decision-making model, and adequately reflect the process or object under consideration.
One of the fundamental features of system analysis, which distinguishes it from other areas of systemic research, is the development and use of tools that facilitate the formation and comparative analysis of the goals and functions of control systems. Initially, the methods of forming and researching the structures of goals were based on the collection and generalization of the experience of specialists who accumulate this experience on specific examples. However, in this case, it is impossible to take into account the completeness of the data obtained.
Thus, the main feature of the systems analysis methods is the combination of formal methods and non-formalized (expert) knowledge. The latter helps to find new ways of solving the problem that are not contained in the formal model, and thus continuously develop the model and the decision-making process, but at the same time be a source of contradictions, paradoxes, which are sometimes difficult to resolve. Therefore, research on systems analysis is beginning to rely more and more on the methodology of applied dialectics. In view of the above, in the definition of system analysis, it should be emphasized that system analysis:
it is used to solve problems that cannot be posed and solved by separate methods of mathematics, i.e. problems with the uncertainty of the decision-making situation, when not only formal methods are used, but also methods of qualitative analysis ("formalized common sense"), intuition and experience of decision-makers;
combines different methods using a single technique; relies on a scientific worldview;
combines the knowledge, judgments and intuition of specialists in various fields of knowledge and obliges them to a certain discipline of thinking;
focuses on goals and goal setting.
The characteristic of scientific directions that have arisen between philosophy and highly specialized disciplines allows them to be arranged approximately in the following order: philosophical and methodological disciplines, systems theory, systems approach, systemology, systems analysis, systems engineering, cybernetics, operations research, special disciplines.
Systems analysis is located in the middle of this list, since it uses in approximately the same proportions philosophical and methodological concepts (typical for philosophy, systems theory) and formalized methods in the model (which is typical for special disciplines).
The scientific areas under consideration have much in common. The need for their application arises in cases where the problem (task) cannot be solved by the methods of mathematics or highly specialized disciplines. Despite the fact that initially the directions proceeded from different basic concepts (operations research - from the concept of "operation"; cybernetics - from the concepts of "control", "feedback", "systems analysis", systems theory, systems engineering; systemology - from the concept " system "), further directions operate with many of the same concepts - elements, connections, goals and means, structure, etc.
Different directions also use the same mathematical methods. At the same time, there are differences between them, which determine their choice in specific decision-making situations. In particular, the main specific features of system analysis that distinguish it from other systemic directions are:
availability, means for organizing the processes of goal setting, structuring and analysis of goals (other systemic directions set the task of achieving goals, developing options for achieving them and choosing the best of these options, and system analysis considers objects as systems with active elements capable and striving for goal setting, and then to the achievement of the formed goals);
development and use of a methodology, in which the stages, sub-stages of system analysis and methods of their implementation are determined, and the methodology combines both formal methods and models and methods based on the intuition of specialists that help to use their knowledge, which makes system analysis especially attractive for solving economic problems.
System analysis cannot be fully formalized, but you can choose some algorithm for its implementation. Justification of decisions using systems analysis is far from always associated with the use of rigorous formalized methods and procedures; judgments based on personal experience and intuition are also allowed, it is only necessary that this circumstance be clearly understood.
System analysis can be performed in the following sequence:
1. Statement of the problem is the starting point of research. In the study of a complex system, he is preceded by work on structuring the problem.
2. Expansion of the problem to the problematics, i.e. finding a system of problems that are essentially related to the problem under study, without which it cannot be solved.
3. Identify goals: goals indicate the direction in which to move in order to gradually solve the problem.
4. Formation of criteria. A criterion is a quantitative reflection of the degree to which the system has achieved its goals. A criterion is a rule for choosing a preferred solution from a number of alternative ones. There can be several criteria. Multi-criteria is a way to improve the adequacy of the description of the goal. The criteria should describe as far as possible all the important aspects of the goal, but at the same time it is necessary to minimize the number of necessary criteria.
5. Aggregation of criteria. The identified criteria can be combined either into groups or replaced by a generalizing criterion.
6. Generation of alternatives and selection using the criteria of the best of them. The formation of many alternatives is the creative stage of systems analysis.
7. Research of resource opportunities, including information resources.
8. The choice of formalization (models and constraints) for solving the problem.
9. Building the system.
10. Using the results of the conducted systematic research.
2.3 Methods of system analysis
The central procedure in systems analysis is the construction of a generalized model (or models) that reflects all the factors and relationships of a real situation that may appear in the process of implementing a solution. The resulting model is investigated in order to find out the closeness of the result of applying one or another of the alternative options of action to the desired one, the comparative cost of resources for each of the options, the degree of sensitivity of the model to various undesirable external influences. System analysis is based on a number of applied mathematical disciplines and methods widely used in modern management activities: operations research, expert assessment method, critical path method, queuing theory, etc. The technical basis of system analysis is modern computers and information systems.
Methodological tools used in solving problems using systems analysis are determined depending on whether a single goal or a set of goals is being pursued, whether a decision is made by one person or several, etc. When there is one sufficiently clearly expressed goal, the degree of achievement of which can be assessed on the basis of one criterion, methods of mathematical programming are used. If the degree of goal achievement is to be assessed on the basis of several criteria, the apparatus of the theory of utility is used, with the help of which the criteria are ordered and the importance of each of them is determined. When the development of events is determined by the interaction of several persons or systems, each of which pursues its own goals and makes its own decisions, the methods of game theory are used.
The effectiveness of the study of control systems is largely determined by the selected and used research methods. To facilitate the choice of methods in real conditions of decision-making, it is necessary to divide the methods into groups, characterize the features of these groups and give recommendations on their use in the development of models and methods of system analysis.
The entire set of research methods can be divided into three large groups: methods based on the use of knowledge and intuition of specialists; methods of formalized representation of control systems (methods of formal modeling of the investigated processes) and integrated methods.
As already noted, a specific feature of systems analysis is the combination of qualitative and formal methods. This combination forms the basis of any technique used. Consider the main methods aimed at using the intuition and experience of specialists, as well as methods for the formalized representation of systems.
Methods based on identifying and summarizing the opinions of experienced experts, using their experience and unconventional approaches to analyzing the organization's activities include: the "Brainstorming" method, the "scenario" type method, the expert assessment method (including SWOT analysis), the " Delphi ", methods such as" tree of goals "," business game ", morphological methods and a number of other methods.
The above terms characterize one or another approach to enhancing the identification and generalization of the opinions of experienced experts (the term "expert" in Latin means "experienced"). All of these methods are sometimes referred to as "expert" methods. However, there is also a special class of methods directly related to the survey of experts, the so-called method of expert assessments (since it is customary to put assessments in points and ranks during surveys), therefore, the named and similar approaches are sometimes combined with the term "qualitative" (specifying the convention of this name, since quantitative methods can also be used when processing opinions received from specialists). This term (although somewhat cumbersome), more than others, reflects the essence of the methods that specialists are forced to resort to, when they not only cannot immediately describe the problem under consideration with analytical dependencies, but also do not see which of the above methods of formalized representation of systems could help get the model.
Brainstorming methods. The concept of brainstorming has become widespread since the early 1950s as a "method for systematic training of creative thinking" aimed at "discovering new ideas and achieving agreement of a group of people based on intuitive thinking."
Methods of this type pursue the main goal - the search for new ideas, their wide discussion and constructive criticism. The main hypothesis is that among a large number of ideas, there are at least a few good ones. Depending on the adopted rules and the severity of their implementation, they distinguish between direct brainstorming, a method of exchanging opinions, methods such as commissions, courts (when one group makes as many proposals as possible, and the second tries to criticize them as much as possible), etc. Recently, sometimes brainstorming has been carried out in the form of a business game.
When conducting discussions on the problem under study, the following rules apply:
formulate the problem in basic terms, highlighting a single central point;
do not declare false AND do not stop researching any idea;
support an idea of any kind, even if its relevance seems dubious to you at the time;
provide support and encouragement to free the discussion participants from the constraints.
For all the seeming simplicity, these discussions give good results.
Methods of the "script" type. Methods for preparing and agreeing on ideas about a problem or an object being analyzed, set out in writing, are called scenarios. Initially, this method involved the preparation of a text containing a logical sequence of events or possible options solutions to the problem deployed in time. However, later the mandatory requirement for time coordinates was removed, and any document containing an analysis of the problem under consideration and proposals for solving it or for developing the system, regardless of the form in which it was presented, began to be called a scenario. As a rule, in practice, proposals for the preparation of such documents are written by experts first individually, and then an agreed text is formed.
The scenario provides not only meaningful reasoning that helps not to miss details that cannot be taken into account in the formal model (this is actually the main role of the scenario), but also contains, as a rule, the results of a quantitative technical and economic or statistical analysis with preliminary conclusions. The group of experts preparing the scenario usually enjoys the right to obtain the necessary certificates from enterprises and organizations, the necessary consultations.
The role of specialists in systems analysis in preparing a scenario is to help the involved leading specialists of the relevant fields of knowledge to identify the general patterns of the system; analyze external and internal factors influencing its development and the formation of goals; identify the sources of these factors; analyze the statements of leading experts in periodicals, scientific publications and other sources of scientific and technical information; to create auxiliary information funds (better automated) that help to solve the corresponding problem.
Recently, the concept of a scenario has been expanding more and more in the direction of both areas of application and forms of presentation and methods of their development: quantitative parameters are introduced into the scenario and their interdependencies are established, methods for preparing a scenario using computers (machine scripts), methods of target management of scenario preparation are proposed. ...
The script allows you to create a preliminary idea of the problem (system) in situations where it is not possible to immediately display it with a formal model. Still, a script is a text with all the ensuing consequences (synonymy, homonymy, paradoxes) associated with the possibility of its ambiguous interpretation by different specialists. Therefore, such a text should be considered as the basis for developing a more formalized view of the future system or the problem being solved.
Expert assessment methods. The basis of these methods is various forms of an expert survey, followed by assessment and selection of the most preferable option. The possibility of using expert assessments, justifying their objectivity is based on the fact that an unknown characteristic of the phenomenon under study is interpreted as random value, the reflection of the distribution law of which is an individual expert's assessment of the reliability and significance of an event.
It is assumed that the true value of the investigated characteristic is within the range of estimates obtained from the group of experts and that the generalized collective opinion is reliable. The most controversial point in these methods is the establishment of weight coefficients according to the assessments expressed by experts and the reduction of conflicting assessments to a certain average value.
The expert survey is not a one-time procedure. This method of obtaining information about a complex problem, characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, should become a kind of "mechanism" in a complex system, i.e. it is necessary to create a regular system of working with experts.
One of the varieties of the expert method is the method of studying the strengths and weaknesses of the organization, the opportunities and threats of its activities - the SWOT analysis method.
This group of methods is widely used in socio-economic research.
Delfi-type methods. Initially, the Delphi method was proposed as one of the brainstorming procedures and should help reduce the impact psychological factors and increase the objectivity of expert assessments. Then the method began to be used independently. It is based on feedback, familiarizing experts with the results of the previous round and taking these results into account when assessing the importance of experts.
In specific techniques that implement the Delphi procedure, this tool is used to varying degrees. So, in a simplified form, a sequence of iterative brainstorming cycles is organized. In a more complex version, a program of sequential individual interviews is developed using questionnaires that exclude contacts between experts, but provide for familiarizing them with the opinions of each other between rounds. Questionnaires from round to round can be updated. To reduce factors such as suggestion or adaptation to the opinion of the majority, it is sometimes required that experts substantiate their point of view, but this does not always lead to the desired result, but, on the contrary, can enhance the effect of adaptability. In the most developed methods, experts are assigned weight coefficients of the significance of their opinions, calculated on the basis of previous surveys, refined from round to round and taken into account when obtaining generalized assessment results.
Methods of the "goal tree" type. The term "tree" implies the use of a hierarchical structure obtained by dividing a common goal into subgoals, and these, in turn, into more detailed components, which can be called subgoals of the lower levels or, starting from a certain level, - functions.
The goal tree method is aimed at obtaining a relatively stable structure of goals, problems, directions, ie. such a structure, which over a period of time has changed little with the inevitable changes occurring in any developing system.
To achieve this, when constructing the initial version of the structure, one should take into account the patterns of goal setting and use the principles of forming hierarchical structures.
Morphological methods. The main idea of the morphological approach is to systematically find all possible solutions to the problem by combining the selected elements or their features. In a systematic form, the method of morphological analysis was first proposed by the Swiss astronomer F. Zwicky and is often called the "Zwicky method".
F. Zwicky considers the starting points of morphological research:
1) equal interest in all objects of morphological modeling;
2) elimination of all restrictions and assessments until the complete structure of the study area is obtained;
3) the most accurate formulation of the problem posed.
There are three main schemes of the method:
the method of systematic coverage of the field, based on the allocation of the so-called strong points of knowledge in the studied area and the use of some formulated principles of thinking to fill the field;
the method of negation and construction, which consists in formulating some assumptions and replacing them with opposite ones, followed by an analysis of the inconsistencies that arise;
the morphological box method, which consists in determining all possible parameters on which the solution to the problem may depend. The revealed parameters form matrices containing all possible combinations of parameters, one from each row, with the subsequent selection of the best combination.
Business games - a method of imitation developed for making management decisions in various situations by playing a group of people or a person and a computer according to the given rules. Business games allow, with the help of modeling and imitation of processes, to come to the analysis, to solve complex practical problems, to ensure the formation of a mental culture, management, communication skills, decision-making, instrumental expansion of managerial skills.
Business games act as a means of analyzing management systems and training specialists.
To describe control systems in practice, a number of formalized methods are used that, to varying degrees, ensure the study of the functioning of systems in time, the study of control schemes, the composition of departments, their subordination, etc., in order to create normal operating conditions for the management apparatus, personalization and clear information management support
One of the most complete classifications based on a formalized representation of systems, i.e. on a mathematical basis, includes the following methods:
- analytical (methods of both classical mathematics and mathematical programming);
- statistical (mathematical statistics, probability theory, queuing theory);
- set-theoretic, logical, linguistic, semiotic (considered as sections of discrete mathematics);
graphic (graph theory, etc.).
The class of poorly organized systems in this classification corresponds to statistical representations. For the class of self-organizing systems, the most suitable are discrete mathematics models and graphical models, as well as their combinations.
Applied classifications are focused on economic and mathematical methods and models and are mainly determined by a functional set of problems solved by the system.
Conclusion
Despite the fact that the range of modeling and problem solving methods used in system analysis is constantly expanding, system analysis by its nature is not identical with scientific research: it is not associated with the tasks of obtaining scientific knowledge in the proper sense, but is only the application of scientific methods to solving practical problems management and pursues the goal of rationalizing the decision-making process, not excluding from this process subjective moments inevitable in it.
Due to the extremely large number of components (elements, subsystems, blocks, connections, etc.) that make up socio-economic, human-machine, etc. systems, to conduct a system analysis requires the use of modern computer technology - both for building generalized models of such systems, and for operating with them (for example, by playing on such models scenarios of the functioning of systems and interpreting the results obtained).
When carrying out a system analysis, a team of performers is of great importance. The system analysis team should include:
* specialists in the field of systems analysis - group leaders and future project managers;
* engineers for the organization of production;
* economists specializing in the field of economic analysis, as well as researchers of organizational structures and workflow;
* specialists in the use of technical means and computer equipment;
* psychologists and sociologists.
An important feature of system analysis is the unity of the formalized and non-formalized means and research methods used in it.
System analysis is widely used in marketing research, since it allows us to consider any market situation as an object for study with a wide range of internal and external cause-and-effect relationships.
Literature
Golubkov 3.P. The use of system analysis in decision-making - M .: Economics, 1982
Ignatieva A. V., Maksimtsov M. M. RESEARCH OF CONTROL SYSTEMS, M .: UNITI-DANA, 2000
Kuzmin V.P. Historical background and epistemological foundations
systematic approach. - Psychol. zhurn., 1982, vol. 3, no. 3, p. 3 - 14; No. 4, p. 3 - 13.
V.B. Remennikov Development of a management solution. Textbook. allowance. - M .: UNITY-DANA, 2000.
Manager's dictionary. / Ed. M.G. Lapusta. - M .: INFRA, 1996.
Directory of the director of the enterprise. / Ed. M.G. La-empty. - M .: INFRA, 1998.
Smolkin A.M. Management: the foundations of the organization. - M .: INFRA-M, 1999.
8. Organization management. / Ed. A.G. Porshneva, Z.P. Rumyantseva, N.A. Salomatina. --M .: INFRA-M, 1999.
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