What will the tactics of squeezing out terrorists in Syria lead to? Among whom do they find support, and on what does the liberation of Aleppo depend? What are the consequences of the recent trilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of Russia, Syria and Iran, which took place in Moscow? The FAN-TV reporter talked about this with a leading researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Boris Dolgov.
- Boris Vasilievich, how do you personally evaluate the results of the trilateral meeting that took place in Moscow? In your opinion, what constructive solutions have been reached in the fight against terrorism in Syria?
- Here, first of all, it must be said that this meeting confirmed the commonality of positions of these three like-minded states - these are Syria, Russia and Iran, the commonality of their vision of what the situation is now in Syria, and the commonality of what can be done to resolve conflict in Syria. Here I would note what our Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: the United States is not fulfilling its obligations assumed in the Syrian conflict, and, moreover, will not fulfill them. This realistic assessment of the situation around the Syrian conflict is also one of the positive results of this trilateral meeting. But, indeed, agreements have been reached not only on the Syrian conflict, but also on the development of bilateral relations, economic relations between countries. But most importantly, this is a reconciliation of positions on the Syrian conflict: what are the methods and ways of resolving it, what will be the mutual assistance of states, their vision of the further development of the situation.
- What does the liberation of Aleppo depend on today? What is the alignment of forces in Syria?
- The liberation of Aleppo is one of the main moments today. In my opinion, before the start of the humanitarian pause, the Syrian army, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, achieved significant success. That is, a large group of terrorist groups (this is Jabhat al-Nusra 1 , now it is called Jabhat Fatah al-Sham) and a number of groups that our American partners call the moderate opposition are surrounded in the Aleppo region. These are about a thousand militants from al-Nusra and about eight thousand from these so-called moderate groups. In the event that the moderate opposition (moderate militants, although this is, in general, a pun) left Aleppo, an opportunity would open up for resolving the situation in Aleppo. But if they do not want to leave, there remains a military or military-political solution. I think this issue will be resolved in the near future. Despite the fact that our president gave instructions to continue the humanitarian pause, this is indeed a very humane step, a step towards saving the lives of civilians and even participants in the conflict. But if they don't go for it, then only a military solution remains. It is possible because this group of Islamist militants is blocked, surrounded, and the only question is when it will be suppressed.
- As for the methods of fighting terrorists: at first they were locally destroyed, now, as far as I understand, another tactic is being used - their survival from the territory. But where do the terrorists go then?
Yes, this is one of the important questions. Since, indeed, this tactic of squeezing militants from one area to another, moreover, with weapons - at the moment this is probably correct, since militants are being squeezed into those areas where these forces of extremists with their families are already present - areas where militants are with their families. And if they continue fighting, they will no longer be able to hide behind their families, like a human shield, which is happening in Aleppo. But, I repeat, this tactic of squeezing militants from one place to another is, after all, probably a temporary phenomenon, since, of course, this does not fundamentally solve the issue. It is necessary to radically suppress extremist groups, not to let the militants get out of this “cauldron,” if we call it a military term, but to suppress and even destroy it, because such measures can be applied to extremists if they do not surrender, according to all international laws. This was also discussed by our leadership, by the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Lavrov said that if militants who are offered an alternative to leave radical extremist groups, to dissociate themselves from them, do not do this, then they become a target, a target for strikes.
– Boris Vasilyevich, what is the role of Turkey in the Syrian conflict? Do the Turks continue to open access to Syria for militants?
– The role of Turkey in the Syrian conflict is great, of course. But, unfortunately, not positive. Since, yes, militants continue to move through Turkey, joining the ranks of extremist armed groups. Turkey has sent its troops to northern Syria and is supporting the Free Syrian Army in the area, which is fighting against the Syrian government army. Actually, this occupation is illegal - both in terms of international law and in terms of violating the territorial integrity of Syria, as the Syrian leadership says. I recently returned from Syria, and the Syrian leadership has openly stated about this that this is a violation of any laws, a violation of Syrian sovereignty - this occupation, in fact, of part of the territory of Syria and support for militants from the Free Syrian Army.
Further, the Turkish leadership stated that it would participate in the battles in Aleppo. Moreover, on whose side it was not clear, but naturally, on the side of these militants, the so-called moderate opposition. But the warning issued by the Syrian leadership prevented the Turks from intervening in military operations in Aleppo. I think that there were also agreements with Russia, Russia also did not express its concern about this position of Turkey. That is, Turkey, unfortunately, acts as an expansionist force, that is, it promotes its expansion in the Syrian conflict, using it to achieve its interests.
– In general, is there an understanding of who the terrorists are cooperating with today, among whom do they find support?
– This is the most important question, in my opinion. You can talk a lot about him, I have publications on this topic. In short, the Islamic State 1 (or ISIS 1 , or Daesh in Arabic) group itself is a man-made creation. That is, both Western states and the United States had a hand in the creation of this terrorist group, when they supported all Islamist groups that fought against the leadership Assad.
And one of these groups, the Islamic State, having gained this strength, including with this voluntary or involuntary support, has turned into such a monster that several coalitions are now fighting. Therefore, this support from the West for radical Islamists - in order to remove the objectionable regime of Bashar al-Assad with the hands of radical Islamists - unfortunately continues. Despite all the terrorist acts both in Europe and in the US, as far as we know, there are still contacts between the special services and Islamist groups, with those forces that the West considers the moderate opposition. Although, in fact, these are the same militants who act in the same barbaric way, cut off their heads in the same way. But there is a long-standing US policy, if such a word can be used: “we know that he is a son of a bitch, but he is our son of a bitch” - this is the position in relation to the militants.
And here it must be said that the monarchies of the Persian Gulf also support these armed groups, which they consider to be moderate opposition, but in fact, these are groups that are listed as terrorist organizations in the Russian lists of terrorist organizations. And what we said about Turkey: there is support from Turkey, in particular, the Free Syrian Army, which is also supported by the United States. Therefore, this support, voluntary or involuntary, or support to achieve their goals - it, alas, fuels this conflict. Because, indeed, the conflict exists only as a result of the fact that the militants have some kind of permanent support, including financial. Although the UN decision prohibits any financial support for terrorists. But, of course, they are not supported directly, but through various non-governmental foundations, front companies. This is happening, unfortunately. But that's the policy. We are now witnessing a period in history when force, armed or political, dominates international law.
– In your opinion, how realistic is it to free Syria from terrorists under such conditions?
– I think it is possible. The impressions that I got from the trip to Syria, this is not my first time there, is the determination of the Syrian leadership, and the Syrian army, and all those political forces with which we had contacts in Syria, even with the opposition, but with the patriotic opposition operating inside Syria. The determination to fight terrorism to the end. That is, the question is raised about the liberation of the entire territory of Syria from radical Islamism. This is in the interests of Russia as well, since Russia is interested in preventing radical Islamism from reaching the borders of Russia, the borders of Central Asia.
How to achieve this? With the help of both diplomacy and politics, and - there is now such a term - "military-political solution." That is, what we talked about: the suppression of the most combat-ready radical, extremist groups, which will allow other groups to enter the political process, the negotiation process, and this will give impetus to a political solution.
On Monday, December 5, the Vzglyad newspaper writes, the Syrian army and militias drove out militants from the largest quarter in the east of the city of Aleppo - Shaar. By the evening of Tuesday, December 6, the Syrian army had established control over another five blocks of the eastern part of Aleppo, and the total number of liberated areas by that time had reached 35. At the same time, the Syrian authorities rejected any ceasefire negotiations until the militants left the held districts of eastern Aleppo. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that militants who refuse to leave Aleppo will be destroyed.
Judging by the reports of the Military Observer, the situation in Aleppo as of Wednesday evening, December 7, was as follows:
The jihadists are putting up fierce resistance south of the Citadel. By the evening of December 7, part of the districts of Jallum, Qalaat Sharif and Sakhet Bizeh were under the control of the military, but there is no information about their complete release yet.
The defense of the Islamists in eastern Aleppo has actually crumbled in recent days. The allied forces do not even allow the militants to regroup. There is also virtually no single "Jaysh Halab" ("Aleppo Army"), which the gangs tried to create. There are disparate (though still very large) bandit groups. The most active resistance is provided by terrorists from other countries who have nothing to lose. The Syrians are trying to escape, surrender, or use the provided corridor to travel to the province of Idlib.
12/07/2016 (19:55) - GA Forum, military section.(In response to the proposal of one of the forum participants to dismember the militant forces along the riverbed):
Yes, what a dismemberment along the channel! They will be crushed to the channel and through this channel before the end of the week, if not today.
They already have the “everything is gone” effect, they are already in complete and unconditional panic, they have not slept for several days and have crowded into a small patch. And almost the same forces as before they were sitting there. And the army around became an order of magnitude larger.
And the morale of the soldiers rolls over, and the homeless people - below the plinth.
It seems that during the onset of the SAA, most of the locals and bandits who survived quietly hid in the basements, taking out razors, and did not run to the southwest. Only the most stubborn part left in green buses. We do not forget that many locals “fought” there, and those who were forcibly called up, and “for food” and “weathervanes”.
I suppose that they worked on the most stubborn with a bullet point, on the “moderately stubborn” - with negotiations - from threats to the promise of Idlib, from bribery to personal SMS with the promise of amnesty. Therefore, the defense that had been created for 4 years fell down and no stubborn urban battles happened.
I suppose that with the complete transition of Aleppo under the control of the army, we will observe:
Moral turning point in the war
Pretty fast collapse of boilers and even the province of Idlib,
The powerless cries of the impotent West,
Over time, there will be an attenuation of screams and even the lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation - only the world will become different. Unexpectedly for us - really multipolar.
12/08/2016 (00:38) - GA Forum, military section. Everything is as our sofa headquarters planned here. We went along the highway to Bab El-Neyrab and Dudu, cut off the east, then - on a soft one - to Salakhin and Qasily, Sharif. I think they will cut to the river - side - Sheikh Said and Al-Kasr. Then they bomb a little and finish. Maybe they’ll go along the river to cut off if the black anti-tank systems are running out. It is unlikely that they will attack from the west - on the defense created over the years. Lose people. Unless they will only support with fire and will pull, so that the forces could not be distributed. One question remains - how soon and will black go to the last "psychic" to break through the already trodden path? Perhaps this is the idea of the CAA.
The operation of Russia and the Syrian government forces to withdraw five thousand militants and their families from Aleppo has every chance of putting an end to the long history of the liberation of this city. When it became known about its beginning, journalists were interested in the question of why Vladimir Putin personally made the corresponding decision. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov reasonably recalled that Putin is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, and all strategic decisions regarding the actions of the Ministry of Defense, including in Syria, are implemented on his direct instructions. The operation can be called unique, like so much of what Russia is doing in Syria. Corridors were organized for members of illegal armed groups, transport was provided and security was guaranteed. There is only one task - to give them the opportunity to leave the city, so that he, finally, with small steps, begins to return to the long-awaited peaceful life. Of course, the question may arise: how did you manage to negotiate with the bandits?
People familiar with the situation say that there are not so many Islamist fanatics left in Aleppo. We are mainly talking about representatives of the so-called irreconcilable opposition, who, with all the love and patronage of the West for them, are fighting against the legitimate government with weapons in their hands, which means that they have put themselves outside the law. But most importantly, among these five thousand there are many fighters of foreign PMCs who came to Syria not to die for the idea of a global caliphate, but to earn money on human grief. These people do not "shine" at all to die in the ruins of a strange city. Unlike religious radicals, the slogan "victory or death" does not cause them a surge of enthusiasm. Negotiability is their only chance to survive.
Much is at stake in Aleppo. Perhaps the future of all Syria, which sooner or later must get rid of this long tragic conflict that fuels so many external forces. The history of recent years, and possibly decades, convincingly shows that the West's statements about a consistent and uncompromising fight against international terrorism most often remain figures of speech, empty political rhetoric, shaking the air. And the events in Aleppo are a picturesque illustration of this. It would seem that the liberation of the city from people for whom violence has long become a style and meaning of life should only be welcomed. Or at least find the strength not to comment on what is happening. Given the zealous attitude of Western partners to what Russia is doing in Syria. In practice, the opposite is observed. Slander, aggressive attacks and irritation unacceptable for politicians and diplomats are seen in literally every statement related to Syria and Aleppo.
British Prime Minister Theresa May, who does not indulge in much publicity on the international agenda, suddenly began to assert that Bashar al-Assad, as well as Russia and Iran, are responsible for the events in Aleppo. Of course, I would like to ask Ms. May: was she interested in which countries provide real assistance to ordinary Syrians to the greatest extent? humanitarian aid. Maybe USA? Or the UK? Or Germany? This is not true. Help just Russia and Iran. And the UN, for example, even plans to cut financial support, which is already small. But the West prefers not to focus on such "trifles." It is much more common, as if from a cornucopia, to pour senseless and unfounded accusations against Russia and Damascus in the death and suffering of civilians.
The last meeting of the UN, which was held in a raised voice, in this sense has become almost a caricature. US Ambassador Samantha Power was especially distinguished. However, her British and French colleagues tried to keep up and keep the alignment with the senior in rank. Sad but true: even the outgoing UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon could not resist the unsubstantiated accusations of Damascus and its partners in the deaths of civilians as a result of the bombing of Aleppo and in their mass executions by the army. It would seem that it is time to think about the eternal. For example, about reputation. But, apparently, some "higher powers" nevertheless spurred Ban Ki-moon to join the general stream of crude and absurd propaganda. Permanent surrealism in the statements of Western politicians and diplomats leads to the opposite effect. The thinking public is more and more clearly inclined to think that if some Samantha Power asserts something passionately, it means that in reality the situation is exactly the opposite.
Looks generous too. Starting this morning, all air strikes on militant positions have been suspended. And the day after tomorrow the terrorists will be given the opportunity to leave the city with weapons. For this, parts of the Syrian army will be withdrawn to a safe distance. After all, someone may not be able to withstand the nerves, considering.
Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation: “To this end, at the same time, by the beginning of the humanitarian pause, Syrian troops will be withdrawn at distances allowing the militants to freely leave eastern Aleppo with weapons along two specially created corridors, the first along the Castello road, the second in the area of the Suk-El-Khai market » .
The humanitarian pause on October 20 is intended, of course, primarily for the evacuation of civilians. But it is not a fact that they will be able to leave the eastern regions of Aleppo if the militants of Jabhat al-Nusra (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation) do not leave on their own. People may simply not be allowed to do it. After all, terrorists need them as a human shield and for propaganda purposes - when the victims of hostilities organized by radicals are passed off as victims of air strikes. Although the Russian Ministry of Defense . And the first rule: no targets in residential areas. So today's proposal to the militants to voluntarily withdraw from Aleppo is actually addressed to a wider audience, notes NTV correspondent Yuri Kuchinsky.
Ivan Konovalov, Head of the Military Policy and Economics Sector of the Center for Euro-Atlantic and Defense Studies of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies: “Let's be honest: the West is zombified by this information war. But now they are receiving information: we are stopping the fighting, we want to hear your reaction.”
Consultations between military experts from different countries will start in Geneva tomorrow. They are called upon to finally move the sore point of separating the wheat from the chaff, that is, the moderate oppositionists from the real terrorists, from the dead center. It can hardly be solved in one day. Therefore, the corridors from Aleppo are offered to everyone. Actually, the very decision to voluntarily leave will be very revealing. If the terrorists decide to stay, the assault on eastern Aleppo, as some experts are sure, will begin immediately after the declared humanitarian pause.
Mikhail Khodarenok, a military observer for Gazeta.ru: “Aleppo is a kind of Syrian Stalingrad. Let's take Aleppo and achieve a turning point in the civil war. If not, the result is unpredictable. And we need to take Aleppo before the militants of the formations arrive there, which can be redeployed from Mosul.”
The group storming this Iraqi capital of ISIS (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation) consists of very different parts, the interests of which can vary greatly. Here are the Kurds, and the local Shiites, and directly the units of the Iraqi security forces. All this with the support of American aviation. But do they all want one thing: to destroy the ISIS terrorists (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation)? This raises doubts in the Russian Foreign Ministry. At the same time, there is much less talk in the media about the humanitarian situation and possible casualties during the storming of Mosul than about the situation in Aleppo. Despite the fact that in the Syrian city on the territory captured by the militants, there are about 250 thousand civilians, and in Iraq - one and a half million.
What is really happening in Syria, we learn every day not from the anonymous White Helmets, but from real correspondents openly working in the war zone. Today, 3 people, including children, were killed in the shelling of peaceful quarters of Aleppo. Two sister girls - 5 and 6 years old. 16 people received shrapnel wounds. At the same time, Russian and Syrian aircraft have not launched air strikes there for 30 days.
Sisters Ruha and Lin, girls of five and six years old, were in a small courtyard of their own house, mother was preparing dinner in the summer kitchen. The terrorists attacked with a 120-millimeter mortar, small children were thrown against the wall.
"The children lost a small silver ring in the yard and enthusiastically searched for it here, it is relatively far from us to the terrorists, and it always seemed that the yard, look what it is, not a big, safe place. They talked with their mother, asked her, and then a mine flew ", - says Duret Faur, an eyewitness.
The girls had no chance, they died on the spot. The mother of the killed children received shrapnel wounds in her shoulder and stomach. The militants fired from the Bustan al-Qasr area - the center of the eastern part of the largest Syrian city. The quarters there are controlled by the Islamists, who in the West are called the "moderate" opposition and support the radicals. But the militants are ordinary terrorists.
They fired at the Governorate quarter, there are no military facilities near the place where the tragedy occurred.
Ar-Razi hospital again has no empty operating rooms. The head of the Aleppo health department dryly voices the losses. Killing civilians here is a daily reality.
"As a result of shelling today, three civilians were killed, including an adult man and two children. 16 people received shrapnel wounds of varying severity, they are under the supervision of qualified specialists, doctors are helping the wounded," he says.
The militants who control eastern Aleppo were repeatedly offered not to even surrender, but to leave the dense residential area with weapons in their hands and go to the neighboring province of Idlib, which is under the complete control of the gangs, just so that there would be no such deaths.
But terrorist groups refuse to leave Aleppo, and continue, hiding behind a human shield - and in the eastern part of the city there are more than 100 thousand inhabitants - to resist government forces.
Already at night, the Syrian army fighters may begin an offensive operation on the positions of the Islamists in the city proper. A strike force has been formed to liberate the eastern quarters of the northern capital of Syria from terrorists. Assault units will operate without aviation support, so it will not be possible to quickly and easily knock out the militants. The radicals will fight for every building, they have nowhere to retreat.
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